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A wide ranging review of public data and targeted consultation was used to identify emerging trends and to inform the assessment of those trends
LEK · 2020 · context
A wide ranging review of public data and targeted consultation was used to identify emerging trends and to inform the assessment of those trends
 Infrastructure trends were assessed for their size and distribution of impacts, the direction of change against pre-COVID-19 trend, and expected recovery
LEK · 2020 · framework_other
Infrastructure trends were assessed for their size and distribution of impacts, the direction of change against pre-COVID-19 trend, and expected recovery
 Future experience driven by two critical 'unknowns' – the duration of pandemic health risks, and the speed and economic recovery
LEK · 2020 · framework_2x2
Future experience driven by two critical 'unknowns' – the duration of pandemic health risks, and the speed and economic recovery
 Australia has emerged from the first shocks of the pandemic adjusted to a 'new normal' – however the nature of future recovery remains unclear
LEK · 2020 · scenario_analysis
Australia has emerged from the first shocks of the pandemic adjusted to a 'new normal' – however the nature of future recovery remains unclear
 As the global pandemic unfolded, different national responses determined materially different health outcomes
LEK · 2020 · context
As the global pandemic unfolded, different national responses determined materially different health outcomes
100,000 — Daily new cases
 As the first wave of infections grew in Australia, protective health and travel measures were introduced by Australian and State Governments in March 2020
LEK · 2020 · context
As the first wave of infections grew in Australia, protective health and travel measures were introduced by Australian and State Governments in March 2020
 While Victoria experienced a second wave, restrictive measures such as border closures have thus far prevented a second national wave of infections
LEK · 2020 · context
While Victoria experienced a second wave, restrictive measures such as border closures have thus far prevented a second national wave of infections
20,000 — Daily COVID-19 cases
 Lockdowns and movement restrictions have severe economic impacts, with Australia entering a recession and forecasting negative growth in FY2021
LEK · 2020 · situation_overview
Lockdowns and movement restrictions have severe economic impacts, with Australia entering a recession and forecasting negative growth in FY2021
-7.0% — GDP growth
 Economic concerns have eased and optimism continues to grow
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Economic concerns have eased and optimism continues to grow
63% — Consumer sentiment
 Most Australians feel that Australia's reaction to COVID-19 has been appropriate
LEK · 2020 · context
Most Australians feel that Australia's reaction to COVID-19 has been appropriate
82% — Percent of respondents
 Australian Governments have injected substantial, time-limited stimulus support, including relief payments, wage subsidies, and loans
LEK · 2020 · situation_overview
Australian Governments have injected substantial, time-limited stimulus support, including relief payments, wage subsidies, and loans
$200b — Billions of AUD
 The impacts of COVID-19 restrictions have been uneven across the economy, with some sectors experiencing strong growth, others stagnation or contraction
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
The impacts of COVID-19 restrictions have been uneven across the economy, with some sectors experiencing strong growth, others stagnation or contraction
500 — Share price index
 Unemployment has also been unevenly distributed, with youth unemployment more than double the general rate of unemployment
LEK · 2020 · market_landscape
Unemployment has also been unevenly distributed, with youth unemployment more than double the general rate of unemployment
14.5% — Unemployment rate
 Household incomes in most metro areas were on average more negatively impacted than incomes in regions
LEK · 2020 · market_landscape
Household incomes in most metro areas were on average more negatively impacted than incomes in regions
 Domestic travel was severely curtailed but began to recover in May 2020, with regional areas rebounding more quickly than capital cities
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Domestic travel was severely curtailed but began to recover in May 2020, with regional areas rebounding more quickly than capital cities
 State border restrictions catalysed a rapid recovery in intrastate trips, especially in Western Australia, Tasmania, Queensland and South Australia
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
State border restrictions catalysed a rapid recovery in intrastate trips, especially in Western Australia, Tasmania, Queensland and South Australia
 By November 2020, signs of consumer confidence were growing, with more intending to return to past leisure and international travel behaviour
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
By November 2020, signs of consumer confidence were growing, with more intending to return to past leisure and international travel behaviour
1,531 — Consumer travel intention
 The impact of 2020 international border closures will be sustained reduction in Australia's level of population growth, with implications for economic recovery
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
The impact of 2020 international border closures will be sustained reduction in Australia's level of population growth, with implications for economic recovery
1.1 million — Net Overseas Migration
 The pandemic triggered a $5b reduction in construction and building projects, with industry expecting to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2023
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
The pandemic triggered a $5b reduction in construction and building projects, with industry expecting to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels by 2023
$5b — Value of building and construction work
 Businesses in the construction and building industry report revenue losses, and anticipate lower productivity due to COVID-19
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Businesses in the construction and building industry report revenue losses, and anticipate lower productivity due to COVID-19
25-30% — Percentage of survey respondents
 The construction and building sectors saw improved business confidence in late 2020
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
The construction and building sectors saw improved business confidence in late 2020
65% — Productivity expectation
 By November 2020, infrastructure organisations had growing confidence about near-term workforce availability, supply chains and productivity
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
By November 2020, infrastructure organisations had growing confidence about near-term workforce availability, supply chains and productivity
 Tradespeople also identified a 19% reduction in activity during April, with modest recovery by June
LEK · 2020 · market_landscape
Tradespeople also identified a 19% reduction in activity during April, with modest recovery by June
19% — Activity level change
 All states saw a significant downturn in trades activity in April. Regional areas typically showed greater turnaround by June than metropolitan areas.
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
All states saw a significant downturn in trades activity in April. Regional areas typically showed greater turnaround by June than metropolitan areas.
19% — Percentage change in activity levels
 The HomeBuilder policy has supported an uplift in planned residential construction activity
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
The HomeBuilder policy has supported an uplift in planned residential construction activity
 Across states, trade-related supply chain delays have had minimal impact nationally, but disruption from social distancing was most pronounced in Melbourne
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Across states, trade-related supply chain delays have had minimal impact nationally, but disruption from social distancing was most pronounced in Melbourne
562 — Percentage of responses
 Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to be around 8% lower for the June quarter, reflecting the impact of restrictions on transport and energy use
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to be around 8% lower for the June quarter, reflecting the impact of restrictions on transport and energy use
8% — Greenhouse gas emissions
 Behavioural changes responding to the pandemic are driving impacts across infrastructure sectors, and could continue beyond the pandemic
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Behavioural changes responding to the pandemic are driving impacts across infrastructure sectors, and could continue beyond the pandemic
 Almost a third of Australia’s workforce worked from home during the pandemic, with a third of these hoping to continue post COVID-19
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Almost a third of Australia’s workforce worked from home during the pandemic, with a third of these hoping to continue post COVID-19
42% — Work from home frequency
 The top benefits of working from home were reduced commutes and greater flexibility. People aged over 35 reported they had limited dis-benefits
LEK · 2020 · data_table
The top benefits of working from home were reduced commutes and greater flexibility. People aged over 35 reported they had limited dis-benefits
1,531 — Number of responses
 Some households moved away from major cities to regional cities and centres during the pandemic, but it is unclear if this is temporary or more permanent
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Some households moved away from major cities to regional cities and centres during the pandemic, but it is unclear if this is temporary or more permanent
200% — Net migration
 The trend of some households to move to regional areas has resulted in rental declines in metro areas and rental uplifts in outer suburbs
LEK · 2020 · market_landscape
The trend of some households to move to regional areas has resulted in rental declines in metro areas and rental uplifts in outer suburbs
 Over 1 in 10 survey respondents moved during COVID-19, with most of these households moving away from inner cities
LEK · 2020 · market_landscape
Over 1 in 10 survey respondents moved during COVID-19, with most of these households moving away from inner cities
1 in 10 — Percentage of respondents who moved
 Office occupancy rates have been slowly returning following the easing of lockdowns, but still remain well below prior year levels
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Office occupancy rates have been slowly returning following the easing of lockdowns, but still remain well below prior year levels
70% — Office occupancy rate
 Increased commercial vacancies in CBDs indicate that firms are beginning to 'lock in' decisions to work remotely or to downsize their space requirements
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Increased commercial vacancies in CBDs indicate that firms are beginning to 'lock in' decisions to work remotely or to downsize their space requirements
18.4% — CBD Office Vacancy
 Work from home has marginally shifted housing preferences to larger dwellings, and increased the desirability of additional space for a home office or garden
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Work from home has marginally shifted housing preferences to larger dwellings, and increased the desirability of additional space for a home office or garden
605% — Search keyword frequency
 There has been a sharp increase in the use of national parks and green spaces during COVID-19, with the exception of Victoria due to tighter restrictions
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
There has been a sharp increase in the use of national parks and green spaces during COVID-19, with the exception of Victoria due to tighter restrictions
70% — Percent of respondents
 Consumers have shifted their essential and discretionary retail to online channels, and have embraced non-cash payments in response to the crisis
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Consumers have shifted their essential and discretionary retail to online channels, and have embraced non-cash payments in response to the crisis
 Australian consumer spending substantially declined following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, however has largely recovered
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Australian consumer spending substantially declined following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, however has largely recovered
100 — Weekly index of consumption
 Since July, there has been significant uplift in intentions to return to previous behaviour, with business travel and entertainment the most likely to lag
LEK · 2020 · market_landscape
Since July, there has been significant uplift in intentions to return to previous behaviour, with business travel and entertainment the most likely to lag
 COVID-19 caused less travel and triggered a mode shift to roads
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
COVID-19 caused less travel and triggered a mode shift to roads
 The lockdown in March 2020 forced a sharp decline in personal mobility, private vehicle use has recovered however public transport and walking have stabilised
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
The lockdown in March 2020 forced a sharp decline in personal mobility, private vehicle use has recovered however public transport and walking have stabilised
 Low recovery of public transport use is a national trend, and evident even in cities with fewer COVID-19 case numbers
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Low recovery of public transport use is a national trend, and evident even in cities with fewer COVID-19 case numbers
 In Sydney, the use of public transport has recovered with the rate of return to office-based commuting
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
In Sydney, the use of public transport has recovered with the rate of return to office-based commuting
-46% — Public transport patronage
 Public transport use drops were consistent across both urban and regional rail services in New South Wales
LEK · 2020 · data_table
Public transport use drops were consistent across both urban and regional rail services in New South Wales
-47% — Change in patronage
 Public transport use in other major cities has generally followed the trend of CBD occupancy rates, although they have less reliance on public transport for CBD access
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Public transport use in other major cities has generally followed the trend of CBD occupancy rates, although they have less reliance on public transport for CBD access
 Increased new and second-hand car registrations may indicate the 'lock-in' of mode shift to private car use may be sustained
LEK · 2020 · industry_trends
Increased new and second-hand car registrations may indicate the 'lock-in' of mode shift to private car use may be sustained
 The shortage of used vehicle stock nationally led to an increase in used car prices
LEK · 2020 · market_landscape
The shortage of used vehicle stock nationally led to an increase in used car prices
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