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The real trend line
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
The real trend line
 The decline of old gatekeepers
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
The decline of old gatekeepers
 And the rise of new ones
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
And the rise of new ones
 Software eats advertising
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
Software eats advertising
 Software eats advertising
BenedictEvans · market_sizing
Software eats advertising
$700bn — Ad revenue
 Global channels, global winners
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Global channels, global winners
 Moving from local to global markets means moving from local to global winners
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Moving from local to global markets means moving from local to global winners
$760bn — Advertising revenue
 The US had over-invested in retail space - now the trend reverses
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
The US had over-invested in retail space - now the trend reverses
 Amazon doubled its warehouse space since 2019
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Amazon doubled its warehouse space since 2019
500m — fulfillment centre space
 Ads > Prime
BenedictEvans · financial_analysis
Ads > Prime
 New ad models overtake old ones
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
New ad models overtake old ones
 Ads > AWS?
BenedictEvans · financial_analysis
Ads > AWS?
 New channel, new gold rush
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
New channel, new gold rush
$38bn — Advertising Revenue
 Retail media may have taken 10% share in 2022
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Retail media may have taken 10% share in 2022
10% — Share of US advertising spending
 Chinese suppliers going direct on Amazon
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Chinese suppliers going direct on Amazon
37% — Share of Amazon Marketplace Top Sellers
 Unbundling Amazon
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Unbundling Amazon
$200bn — Retail GMV
 New channels, new winners
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
New channels, new winners
 Shein goes direct
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
Shein goes direct
 What does internet-native fast fashion mean?
BenedictEvans · process_diagram
What does internet-native fast fashion mean?
5-10k — new products
 New channels + new tech = new SKUs
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
New channels + new tech = new SKUs
 New channels + new tech = new SKUs
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
New channels + new tech = new SKUs
2,000 — Number of original TV series
 TV unbundles...
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
TV unbundles...
 Gradually, then suddenly...
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
Gradually, then suddenly...
33% — TV viewing hours per day
 Streaming > schlepping
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Streaming > schlepping
$5bn — US home video revenue
 Land grabs are expensive
BenedictEvans · financial_analysis
Land grabs are expensive
$32bn — Content spending
 Content is king - for content businesses
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Content is king - for content businesses
 The 'innovator's dilemma' costs real money
BenedictEvans · financial_analysis
The 'innovator's dilemma' costs real money
 Something missing, though?
BenedictEvans · competitive_analysis
Something missing, though?
 YouTube creator payouts are almost certainly comparable to TV production budgets
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
YouTube creator payouts are almost certainly comparable to TV production budgets
 Nielsen estimates that YouTube and Netflix have equivalent viewing in the USA
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
Nielsen estimates that YouTube and Netflix have equivalent viewing in the USA
 MrBeast probably has comparable total viewing time to a top 10 Netflix show
BenedictEvans · competitive_analysis
MrBeast probably has comparable total viewing time to a top 10 Netflix show
50m — Global 7-day hours of viewing
 “Software is eating the world”
BenedictEvans · quote_slide
“Software is eating the world”
 But where does that happen?
BenedictEvans · framework_other
But where does that happen?
 Nike's own channel is now 40% of sales and all of the growth
BenedictEvans · financial_analysis
Nike's own channel is now 40% of sales and all of the growth
40% — Revenue
 The big brand bundle... unbundled
BenedictEvans · process_diagram
The big brand bundle... unbundled
 A market reset
BenedictEvans · framework_other
A market reset
 Advertising is the price you pay for having an unremarkable product or service
BenedictEvans · quote_slide
Advertising is the price you pay for having an unremarkable product or service
 Amazon is the world's largest advertiser
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Amazon is the world's largest advertiser
$17bn — Advertising budget
 Three steps to the future
BenedictEvans · process_diagram
Three steps to the future
 (And there’s plenty more deployment to do)
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
(And there’s plenty more deployment to do)
 ‘Speculation as a feature’ can work both ways
BenedictEvans · analyze_data
‘Speculation as a feature’ can work both ways
 “Wait, how much money, Mark?”
BenedictEvans · financial_analysis
“Wait, how much money, Mark?”
$14bn — Quarterly R&D/Operating Loss
 But what are the questions that matter?
BenedictEvans · transition
But what are the questions that matter?
 Remember - the future can take a long time
BenedictEvans · context
Remember - the future can take a long time
 Machine learning spread from ‘cool demo’ to everything
BenedictEvans · process_diagram
Machine learning spread from ‘cool demo’ to everything
 Now, the same moment with generative networks
BenedictEvans · other
Now, the same moment with generative networks
 Generative UI design?
BenedictEvans · other
Generative UI design?
 Generative product?
BenedictEvans · client_example
Generative product?
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