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Lebanon remains one of few countries with fully state owned telecommunication sector witnessing limited private sector participation
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Lebanon remains one of few countries with fully state owned telecommunication sector witnessing limited private sector participation
 Today telecom contributes ~10-20% of yearly revenues, industry dynamics however put downward pressure on revenues
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Today telecom contributes ~10-20% of yearly revenues, industry dynamics however put downward pressure on revenues
10-20% — Government revenue contribution
 However, overall revenue opportunity remains from low mobile penetration
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
However, overall revenue opportunity remains from low mobile penetration
72% — Mobile penetration
 Today, the telecom sector lags behind in terms of capital spend on infrastructure investments, especially regarding the Fixed network
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Today, the telecom sector lags behind in terms of capital spend on infrastructure investments, especially regarding the Fixed network
42 — Annual investment in telecom services per capita
 The government should develop scenarios to understand the overall effects of privatizing the mobile operators
McKinsey · 2018 · scenario_analysis
The government should develop scenarios to understand the overall effects of privatizing the mobile operators
147% — Debt to GDP ratio
 Thorough assessment of industry disruptions indicates move towards connectivity agnostic world where Apple & Samsung provide connectivity
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Thorough assessment of industry disruptions indicates move towards connectivity agnostic world where Apple & Samsung provide connectivity
 Generation cost of existing fleet is significantly higher compared to state-of-art technologies
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Generation cost of existing fleet is significantly higher compared to state-of-art technologies
110-240 — LCOE (USD/MWh)
 T&D losses are ~60% higher than top quartile
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
T&D losses are ~60% higher than top quartile
10.5% — T&D losses
 Connecting new customers takes 56 days nearly double the time of global benchmarks
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Connecting new customers takes 56 days nearly double the time of global benchmarks
56 — Days to connect
 EDL electricity tariffs are lower than comparable peers for both residential and industrial customers
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
EDL electricity tariffs are lower than comparable peers for both residential and industrial customers
10.0 — USD cent per kWh
 Performance gap also creates significant financial burden on end-consumers
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Performance gap also creates significant financial burden on end-consumers
3.1 — USD bn
 Performance improvement would eliminate need for government subsidy by 2024
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Performance improvement would eliminate need for government subsidy by 2024
2.7 — EDL losses
 Increasing generation capacity and improving cost efficiency could lead to significant savings for the government and consumers
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Increasing generation capacity and improving cost efficiency could lead to significant savings for the government and consumers
60% — generation efficiency
 Three potential options exist for the target generation mix
McKinsey · 2018 · strategic_options
Three potential options exist for the target generation mix
2.7 — Sector cost in 2030
 Selection of options depends on the outlook for gas resources, the relevance of renewables and the development cost for batteries
McKinsey · 2018 · scenario_analysis
Selection of options depends on the outlook for gas resources, the relevance of renewables and the development cost for batteries
 Scenario “Double Down on Gas”: immediate focus on the installation of 3200MW CCGT’s by 2023
McKinsey · 2018 · scenario_analysis
Scenario “Double Down on Gas”: immediate focus on the installation of 3200MW CCGT’s by 2023
3200MW — Capacity
 Scenario “Accelerate Renewables”: parallel focus on CCGT’s and solar PV deployment
McKinsey · 2018 · scenario_analysis
Scenario “Accelerate Renewables”: parallel focus on CCGT’s and solar PV deployment
2.7 — Generation cost
 Cost of solar PV dropped by 15% annually over the last decade making solar PV the cheapest technology
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Cost of solar PV dropped by 15% annually over the last decade making solar PV the cheapest technology
15% — Capital cost of solar PV
 Scenario “Wait for battery”: immediate focus on CCGT’s shifting towards solar PV with battery beyond 2025
McKinsey · 2018 · scenario_analysis
Scenario “Wait for battery”: immediate focus on CCGT’s shifting towards solar PV with battery beyond 2025
2.8 — Generation cost
 Cost for batteries is projected to reduce significantly over the next decade
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Cost for batteries is projected to reduce significantly over the next decade
$81 — USD/kWh
 Application of solar PV and battery to provide firm capacity will only become competitive around 2030
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Application of solar PV and battery to provide firm capacity will only become competitive around 2030
88 — LCOE (USD/MWh)
 Technical losses in T&D need to be reduced by 50% along with network reliability improvements
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
Technical losses in T&D need to be reduced by 50% along with network reliability improvements
6.5% — T&D technical losses
 T&D cost increases by 5% p.a. as supply increases, despite reducing losses to international benchmark
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
T&D cost increases by 5% p.a. as supply increases, despite reducing losses to international benchmark
5% — T&D cost
 Performance improvement in distribution requires reducing non-technical losses and improving connection time
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
Performance improvement in distribution requires reducing non-technical losses and improving connection time
25% — Non-technical losses
 Sector profitability could be improved by increasing tariffs and adapting regulatory enablers
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
Sector profitability could be improved by increasing tariffs and adapting regulatory enablers
14 — USD/kWh
 Improving performance of billing mechanism and increasing tariffs by 3% p.a. could be pursued
McKinsey · 2018 · strategic_options
Improving performance of billing mechanism and increasing tariffs by 3% p.a. could be pursued
1% — Uncollected bills
 Consequently, sector could reach a revenue of USD 4 bn by 2030
McKinsey · 2018 · revenue_buildup
Consequently, sector could reach a revenue of USD 4 bn by 2030
USD 4 bn — Sector revenue
 EDL reaches profitability by 2024 in all three scenarios
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
EDL reaches profitability by 2024 in all three scenarios
541 — EDL profitability (USD millions)
 Lebanese diaspora is estimated to be ~10 Mn but no official record of the diaspora size exists by location
McKinsey · 2018 · geographic_map
Lebanese diaspora is estimated to be ~10 Mn but no official record of the diaspora size exists by location
~9-10 Mn — Lebanese diaspora population
 The Lebanese diaspora contribute ~11Bn USD per year to the Balance of Payments
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
The Lebanese diaspora contribute ~11Bn USD per year to the Balance of Payments
$11Bn — Balance of Payments contribution
 Diaspora inflows have played an important role in decreasing the gap in the Balance of Payments in the past 10 years
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Diaspora inflows have played an important role in decreasing the gap in the Balance of Payments in the past 10 years
32 — Balance of Payments
 Despite the diaspora’s historic contribution to Lebanon, several challenges remain
McKinsey · 2018 · pain_points
Despite the diaspora’s historic contribution to Lebanon, several challenges remain
~75% — diaspora inflow allocation
 Countries have made efforts to actively engage with their diaspora through several type of initiatives
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
Countries have made efforts to actively engage with their diaspora through several type of initiatives
 CASE EXAMPLE: India has made significant efforts to actively engage with its 16 Mn+ diaspora members
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
CASE EXAMPLE: India has made significant efforts to actively engage with its 16 Mn+ diaspora members
16Mn — Diaspora population
 City livability and competitiveness matters because:
McKinsey · 2018 · context
City livability and competitiveness matters because:
60% — Global GDP share
 Today, Beirut ranks poorly when compared to regional and global peers
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Today, Beirut ranks poorly when compared to regional and global peers
181 — Mercer Quality of Life Index Rank
 Within Beirut, urban mobility is hindered by high congestion levels in main cities leading up to ~46% extra travel time
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Within Beirut, urban mobility is hindered by high congestion levels in main cities leading up to ~46% extra travel time
46% — Extra travel time
 Public transportation contributes to only 2% of total completed trips
McKinsey · 2018 · benchmark_peers
Public transportation contributes to only 2% of total completed trips
2% — Public transport share
 Greenhouse gases emissions are in line with global and regional averages, however air pollution is amongst highest
McKinsey · 2018 · benchmark_peers
Greenhouse gases emissions are in line with global and regional averages, however air pollution is amongst highest
32 — PM-2.5 annual mean
 When compared to benchmarks, per capita waste production is line with regional and global peers at 1.18 kg/capita/day
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
When compared to benchmarks, per capita waste production is line with regional and global peers at 1.18 kg/capita/day
1.18 — kg/capita/day
 Landfill portion of waste greatly exceeds global benchmarks; under status-quo landfill size expected to be double the Naameh size today
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Landfill portion of waste greatly exceeds global benchmarks; under status-quo landfill size expected to be double the Naameh size today
86% — Landfill percentage
 BML provides for a highly accessible healthcare network when compared to regional benchmarks but lags OECD countries
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
BML provides for a highly accessible healthcare network when compared to regional benchmarks but lags OECD countries
5.6 — hospital beds per 1,000 people
 Road safety is amongst best regional and global peers; homicide rate on the other hand is amongst the highest
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Road safety is amongst best regional and global peers; homicide rate on the other hand is amongst the highest
4.0 — deaths per 100,000
 The waste management industry is seeing additional trends in recovery and disposal
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
The waste management industry is seeing additional trends in recovery and disposal
 Across the world waste to energy is gaining traction, however many OECD countries are suffering from overcapacity
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Across the world waste to energy is gaining traction, however many OECD countries are suffering from overcapacity
 Incineration dominates the market as the key mature WtE technology, although gasification technologies are emerging
McKinsey · 2018 · comparison_table
Incineration dominates the market as the key mature WtE technology, although gasification technologies are emerging
 Lebanon currently has the third highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the world standing at ~145% (in 2016)
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Lebanon currently has the third highest public debt-to-GDP ratio in the world standing at ~145% (in 2016)
145% — Debt-to-GDP ratio
 The aggregate outstanding debt of 75 USD Bn and debt to GDP ratio of 145% were reached through fiscal deficits over the last 10 years
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
The aggregate outstanding debt of 75 USD Bn and debt to GDP ratio of 145% were reached through fiscal deficits over the last 10 years
145% — Debt to GDP ratio
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