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~160 initiatives across prioritized sectors and enablers would guide the vision implementation
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
~160 initiatives across prioritized sectors and enablers would guide the vision implementation
160 — Number of initiatives
 The ~160 initiatives should be launched beginning with those that have the highest priority
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
The ~160 initiatives should be launched beginning with those that have the highest priority
~160 — Number of initiatives
 Launching the developed initiatives would ensure balanced regional development
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
Launching the developed initiatives would ensure balanced regional development
 Beyond activating productive sectors, the government should work towards overhauling the infrastructure, particularly across 3 areas
McKinsey · 2018 · strategic_options
Beyond activating productive sectors, the government should work towards overhauling the infrastructure, particularly across 3 areas
 Implementation of Capital Investment Plan should prioritize projects which are very relevant to the economic vision
McKinsey · 2018 · recommendation
Implementation of Capital Investment Plan should prioritize projects which are very relevant to the economic vision
22,939 — CIP budget
 Achieving Lebanon's Economic Vision will require an efficient urban and business centre in Beirut
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Achieving Lebanon's Economic Vision will require an efficient urban and business centre in Beirut
2025 — Urban efficiency KPIs
 Immediate action by the government to reform the power sector would eliminate the need for subsidies by 2024
McKinsey · 2018 · waterfall_chart
Immediate action by the government to reform the power sector would eliminate the need for subsidies by 2024
2.7 — EDL losses
 Three overarching government enablers should also be tackled to further fuel the economic growth
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
Three overarching government enablers should also be tackled to further fuel the economic growth
 To enhance the public administration’s efficiency, three key priority dimensions will be tackled: digitization, corruption & productivity
McKinsey · 2018 · strategic_options
To enhance the public administration’s efficiency, three key priority dimensions will be tackled: digitization, corruption & productivity
70% — Government effectiveness
 Four broad categories of interventions can be leveraged to ensure fiscal discipline
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
Four broad categories of interventions can be leveraged to ensure fiscal discipline
-3% — Fiscal deficit, % GDP
 In order to ensure a conducive business environment, several legislations need to be passed
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
In order to ensure a conducive business environment, several legislations need to be passed
70 — WGI: Regulatory quality rank
 Moreover, the identified 3 flagship projects would be launched immediately to jumpstart the momentum
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
Moreover, the identified 3 flagship projects would be launched immediately to jumpstart the momentum
100-300 — USD Bn
 The Syrian conflict has destroyed 1-2 million homes, contributing to a total reconstruction cost of 100-350 billion USD
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
The Syrian conflict has destroyed 1-2 million homes, contributing to a total reconstruction cost of 100-350 billion USD
100-350 billion USD — Reconstruction cost
 Lebanon’s participation in the reconstruction of Syria should be focused on industrial construction approaches
McKinsey · 2018 · strategic_options
Lebanon’s participation in the reconstruction of Syria should be focused on industrial construction approaches
 Industrialized construction offers several advantages which are very relevant to Syrian reconstruction
McKinsey · 2018 · strategic_options
Industrialized construction offers several advantages which are very relevant to Syrian reconstruction
50% — Construction efficiency
 Industrial construction technologies have been successfully leveraged for housing across the world...
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
Industrial construction technologies have been successfully leveraged for housing across the world...
 Homs is likely to be one of the most important reconstruction markets for Syria, followed by Rif Dimashq and Aleppo
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Homs is likely to be one of the most important reconstruction markets for Syria, followed by Rif Dimashq and Aleppo
306 — Number of housing units destroyed or damaged
 A preliminary assessment was conducted for four locations near the Syrian border: Abboudiye, Chadra, Al Qaa, and Masnaa
McKinsey · 2018 · context
A preliminary assessment was conducted for four locations near the Syrian border: Abboudiye, Chadra, Al Qaa, and Masnaa
 While each location has a different value proposition, Al Qaa might be best-prepared to host an industrial construction zone
McKinsey · 2018 · comparison_table
While each location has a different value proposition, Al Qaa might be best-prepared to host an industrial construction zone
 Industrial construction zone should prioritize structural and modular technologies which capture a large share of construction value chain
McKinsey · 2018 · recommendation
Industrial construction zone should prioritize structural and modular technologies which capture a large share of construction value chain
75% — Value chain capture
 Industrial construction zone will create a combination of medium-skill and high-skill jobs across both Lebanon and Syria
McKinsey · 2018 · impact_sizing
Industrial construction zone will create a combination of medium-skill and high-skill jobs across both Lebanon and Syria
67% — Job creation
 A formal implementation and impact realization mechanism should be set up to ensure vision delivery
McKinsey · 2018 · implementation_plan
A formal implementation and impact realization mechanism should be set up to ensure vision delivery
 Until the full institutionalization mechanism is set up, a Vision team would handle the ramp up phase
McKinsey · 2018 · implementation_plan
Until the full institutionalization mechanism is set up, a Vision team would handle the ramp up phase
 In the interim and by the end of 2019, 9 key activities should be completed
McKinsey · 2018 · implementation_plan
In the interim and by the end of 2019, 9 key activities should be completed
 The study has been launched following a Council of Ministers decree in October 2017
McKinsey · 2018 · context
The study has been launched following a Council of Ministers decree in October 2017
 We have engaged with a range of local and global experts, benchmarks and reports
McKinsey · 2018 · context
We have engaged with a range of local and global experts, benchmarks and reports
 Current efforts focus on syndication, to be followed by communication and implementation
McKinsey · 2018 · timeline
Current efforts focus on syndication, to be followed by communication and implementation
 The outcome of the study is organised around 8 chapters, concluding with the institutionalization mechanism and flagship projects
McKinsey · 2018 · table_of_contents
The outcome of the study is organised around 8 chapters, concluding with the institutionalization mechanism and flagship projects
 A model was developed to assess the macro-economic impact
McKinsey · 2018 · context
A model was developed to assess the macro-economic impact
 Both bottom-up and top-down estimations were conducted to assess the macro-economic impact of the Vision
McKinsey · 2018 · process_diagram
Both bottom-up and top-down estimations were conducted to assess the macro-economic impact of the Vision
 A five step process was followed to build the model
McKinsey · 2018 · process_diagram
A five step process was followed to build the model
 We have engaged with a range of local and global experts, benchmarks and reports
McKinsey · 2018 · context
We have engaged with a range of local and global experts, benchmarks and reports
 The Lebanese economic model seem to be stuck in a vicious circle
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
The Lebanese economic model seem to be stuck in a vicious circle
149% — Debt to GDP
 Over the last ~40 years, Lebanon has not created significant incremental wealth and has also lagged other countries in the last 7 years
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Over the last ~40 years, Lebanon has not created significant incremental wealth and has also lagged other countries in the last 7 years
8% — Real GDP per capita growth
 Despite witnessing several periods of economic prosperity, growth has been highly volatile
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Despite witnessing several periods of economic prosperity, growth has been highly volatile
3.3% — Standard deviation of real GDP growth
 Volatility has been influenced by the economy's reliance on diaspora inflows, channelled into real estate, banking and consumption sectors
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Volatility has been influenced by the economy's reliance on diaspora inflows, channelled into real estate, banking and consumption sectors
32 — USD Bn
 Inflows have been geographically concentrated in the GCC, further influencing volatility and the reliance on exogenous factors for growth
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Inflows have been geographically concentrated in the GCC, further influencing volatility and the reliance on exogenous factors for growth
31% — Concentration of inflows
 The inflows also went into financing the governments’ increasing size and indebtedness leaving little room for Capital Expenditures
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
The inflows also went into financing the governments’ increasing size and indebtedness leaving little room for Capital Expenditures
14.9 — Government expenditures
 Economic volatility was compounded by a lack of lack of fiscal discipline...
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
Economic volatility was compounded by a lack of lack of fiscal discipline...
75 — Total gross public debt
 ...making Lebanon the country with the third largest Debt-to-GDP in the world
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
...making Lebanon the country with the third largest Debt-to-GDP in the world
145% — Debt-to-GDP ratio
 On the expenditure side, two thirds of total government budget has gone to salaries & debt service, with ~6% in capital expenditures
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
On the expenditure side, two thirds of total government budget has gone to salaries & debt service, with ~6% in capital expenditures
46% — Wages and salaries as % of revenue
 On the revenue side, Lebanon’s tax performance has been significantly below its potential with a tax effort less than 50%
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
On the revenue side, Lebanon’s tax performance has been significantly below its potential with a tax effort less than 50%
42% — Tax effort
 Lebanon spends ~50% more on public servant salaries and generates ~10% less government revenue compared to peer countries
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Lebanon spends ~50% more on public servant salaries and generates ~10% less government revenue compared to peer countries
50% — Public servant salaries as % of GDP
 Persistent corruption and legislative inefficiencies have further perpetuated the government's inability to spur economic growth
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Persistent corruption and legislative inefficiencies have further perpetuated the government's inability to spur economic growth
146 — Corruption perception index rank
 As a result, the country has been witnessing an unconducive business environment along with a lagging infrastructure
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
As a result, the country has been witnessing an unconducive business environment along with a lagging infrastructure
134 — Ease of doing business rank
 The Power Sector stands out as a culmination of Lebanese governments' inefficiencies hindering economic growth
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
The Power Sector stands out as a culmination of Lebanese governments' inefficiencies hindering economic growth
4 — Quality of Electricity Supply ranking
 Private sector investment have therefore dropped, leading to additional economic stagnation...
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Private sector investment have therefore dropped, leading to additional economic stagnation...
-80% — Investment volume and % of GDP
 An unconducive business environment has kept Lebanon’s productive sectors underdeveloped
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
An unconducive business environment has kept Lebanon’s productive sectors underdeveloped
16% — GDP contribution
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