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Global value chains are under revision, a new power bloc is emerging, energy transformation is key, pandemic accelerates global debt burden
RolandBerger · 2023 · section_divider
Global value chains are under revision, a new power bloc is emerging, energy transformation is key, pandemic accelerates global debt burden
 Since the Global Financial Crisis, the pace of globalization has slowed and is expected to remain at current levels
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Since the Global Financial Crisis, the pace of globalization has slowed and is expected to remain at current levels
3.4% — Global trade growth
 As global trade is increasingly burdened by harmful trade interventions and policies, regional trade agreements offer potential to foster trade
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
As global trade is increasingly burdened by harmful trade interventions and policies, regional trade agreements offer potential to foster trade
37,940 — Cumulative number of trade interventions
 In the 2010s, domestic production regained importance in value chains – This trend is set to continue due to a variety of factors
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
In the 2010s, domestic production regained importance in value chains – This trend is set to continue due to a variety of factors
51% — Domestic share of value added
 Global economic power is shifting to emerging countries – Asian countries are poised to take center stage
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Global economic power is shifting to emerging countries – Asian countries are poised to take center stage
88,228 — Nominal GDP
 Today, economic development can no longer be understood without climate change considerations – To achieve net zero, all sectors must contribute
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Today, economic development can no longer be understood without climate change considerations – To achieve net zero, all sectors must contribute
32.0 — Global CO2 emissions
 Massive investment is necessary to achieve the ambitious goal of net zero by 2050 – Job creation in the clean energy sector and upskilling are key
RolandBerger · 2023 · financial_analysis
Massive investment is necessary to achieve the ambitious goal of net zero by 2050 – Job creation in the clean energy sector and upskilling are key
$4.4tn — Annual investment volume
 Financially, the global economy is burdened by increasing levels of debt – Debt levels rose more sharply in emerging economies
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Financially, the global economy is burdened by increasing levels of debt – Debt levels rose more sharply in emerging economies
160 — Credit as a percentage of GDP
 In the long run, analysts expect real interest rates to turn positive once more posing a potential debt challenge for governments
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
In the long run, analysts expect real interest rates to turn positive once more posing a potential debt challenge for governments
 Technology investment and innovation capabilities remain key – AI promises vast future potential but raises concerns for human values
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Technology investment and innovation capabilities remain key – AI promises vast future potential but raises concerns for human values
 Technology and innovation drive prosperity – Many developing countries lack abilities and access to catch up with developed countries
RolandBerger · 2023 · market_landscape
Technology and innovation drive prosperity – Many developing countries lack abilities and access to catch up with developed countries
 Leading nations and global companies plan to invest heavily in technology – A particular focus concerns chipmakers
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Leading nations and global companies plan to invest heavily in technology – A particular focus concerns chipmakers
USD 248 billion — Investment value
 Pharma and Software account for the highest share of R&D expenditure relative to their revenue, thereby leading as most innovative sectors
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Pharma and Software account for the highest share of R&D expenditure relative to their revenue, thereby leading as most innovative sectors
17.6% — R&D intensity
 Today's frontier technologies are expected to experience considerable growth, maturing to a market value of USD 9.5 trillion by 2030
RolandBerger · 2023 · market_sizing
Today's frontier technologies are expected to experience considerable growth, maturing to a market value of USD 9.5 trillion by 2030
USD 9.5 trillion — Market value
 China and the US are dominating the global landscape of frontier technology patents
RolandBerger · 2023 · market_landscape
China and the US are dominating the global landscape of frontier technology patents
66% — Global share of patents
 However, in terms of research for most of today’s critical technologies, China is taking the academic lead
RolandBerger · 2023 · competitive_analysis
However, in terms of research for most of today’s critical technologies, China is taking the academic lead
37/44 — Academic research leadership
 Artificial intelligence is seen as a powerful but also risky frontier technology – Experts expect human-level AI within next 100 years
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Artificial intelligence is seen as a powerful but also risky frontier technology – Experts expect human-level AI within next 100 years
90% — Probability of human-level AI
 We asked different AIs on their view of the future of AI – and got some interesting answers
RolandBerger · 2023 · case_study
We asked different AIs on their view of the future of AI – and got some interesting answers
 New technologies affect the relationship of humans and machines – Having evolved greatly over past decades, more milestones lie ahead
RolandBerger · 2023 · timeline
New technologies affect the relationship of humans and machines – Having evolved greatly over past decades, more milestones lie ahead
 AI particularly touches the human-machine relationship – There is a broad debate about risks and opportunities of AI and how to cope with them ...
RolandBerger · 2023 · quote_slide
AI particularly touches the human-machine relationship – There is a broad debate about risks and opportunities of AI and how to cope with them ...
 Beyond pandemics: Together, policy makers and health experts must find solutions for myriad health and caregiving challenges
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Beyond pandemics: Together, policy makers and health experts must find solutions for myriad health and caregiving challenges
 While COVID-19 no longer constitutes an international public health emergency, other urgent global health challenges remain for the future
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
While COVID-19 no longer constitutes an international public health emergency, other urgent global health challenges remain for the future
 Health challenges extend to a broad range of topics and reflect medical as well as ecological, technological, political and social challenges
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Health challenges extend to a broad range of topics and reflect medical as well as ecological, technological, political and social challenges
 Globally, 10 diseases cause more than half of all deaths – Lifestyle and age-related diseases, such as dementia, see strongest increases
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Globally, 10 diseases cause more than half of all deaths – Lifestyle and age-related diseases, such as dementia, see strongest increases
55% — percentage of all deaths
 Widespread diseases such as obesity are on the rise – Mental health disorders represent a further burden for people and society worldwide
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Widespread diseases such as obesity are on the rise – Mental health disorders represent a further burden for people and society worldwide
51% — Global population share
 To manage the challenges ahead, future health care spending is set to increase but the gap between high- and low-income countries persists
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
To manage the challenges ahead, future health care spending is set to increase but the gap between high- and low-income countries persists
x 43 — Health spending per capita
 The healthcare of the future is determined by a variety of trends holding great potential for patients, healthcare companies and employees
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
The healthcare of the future is determined by a variety of trends holding great potential for patients, healthcare companies and employees
13% — Healthcare spending as % of GDP
 Effective pharmaceuticals are an essential part of modern and future healthcare – Developing countries are catching up rapidly
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Effective pharmaceuticals are an essential part of modern and future healthcare – Developing countries are catching up rapidly
17.2% — Projected annual growth rate
 Cell and gene therapies exemplify highly promising innovations enabling restoration of biological function and treatment of as yet incurable diseases
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Cell and gene therapies exemplify highly promising innovations enabling restoration of biological function and treatment of as yet incurable diseases
58.6 — EUR bn
 Artificial intelligence capabilities are increasingly entering the healthcare sector, signaling faster, life-saving diagnoses as well as cost reductions
RolandBerger · 2023 · market_sizing
Artificial intelligence capabilities are increasingly entering the healthcare sector, signaling faster, life-saving diagnoses as well as cost reductions
188.0 — Global market of artificial intelligence in healthcare
 Between fiction and prediction: Advances in healthcare are subject to many expectations – Not all are likely to materialize by 2050
RolandBerger · 2023 · framework_2x2
Between fiction and prediction: Advances in healthcare are subject to many expectations – Not all are likely to materialize by 2050
 Caregiving is a key part of health and care systems: Elderly people require the largest share of caregiving, and this will increase in aging societies
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
Caregiving is a key part of health and care systems: Elderly people require the largest share of caregiving, and this will increase in aging societies
41% — Population aged 65+ as a share of total population
 A rising number of professional caregivers is required to support the growing number of older people
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
A rising number of professional caregivers is required to support the growing number of older people
2.8% — Share of working-age population employed in LTC jobs
 Around half of Europe's elderly have long-term limitations due to health issues – Retirement income is largely insufficient to cover LTC costs
RolandBerger · 2023 · data_table
Around half of Europe's elderly have long-term limitations due to health issues – Retirement income is largely insufficient to cover LTC costs
437 — Cost of institutional long-term care as share of median income
 The rise of age-related diseases – such as dementia – also signals a rapidly growing need for cost-intensive care
RolandBerger · 2023 · industry_trends
The rise of age-related diseases – such as dementia – also signals a rapidly growing need for cost-intensive care
2.8 tr — Global dementia cost
 While net-zero commitments have been rising, the net-zero equation is not solved today
misc · 2022 · situation_overview
While net-zero commitments have been rising, the net-zero equation is not solved today
90% — GtCO2 p.a.
 Several elements would need to come together to help solve the net-zero equation
misc · 2022 · context
Several elements would need to come together to help solve the net-zero equation
 We looked at the economic shifts needed to reach net-zero by 2050
misc · 2022 · context
We looked at the economic shifts needed to reach net-zero by 2050
85% — emissions coverage
 The net-zero transition can only be achieved if all seven energy and land-use systems substantially reduce emissions
misc · 2022 · market_landscape
The net-zero transition can only be achieved if all seven energy and land-use systems substantially reduce emissions
 In the transition scenario examined here, annual spending on physical assets would rise to about $9.2 trillion
misc · 2022 · financial_analysis
In the transition scenario examined here, annual spending on physical assets would rise to about $9.2 trillion
$9.2 — Annual spend on physical assets
 This scenario would also require a major shift in the nature of capital spending
misc · 2022 · financial_analysis
This scenario would also require a major shift in the nature of capital spending
65% — Capital spending on high-emissions assets
 Global capital spending in this scenario would rise to almost 9% of GDP by 2030 before falling back
misc · 2022 · financial_analysis
Global capital spending in this scenario would rise to almost 9% of GDP by 2030 before falling back
8.8% — Capital spending as % of GDP
 A fifth of the economy is most exposed to the net-zero transition
misc · 2022 · situation_overview
A fifth of the economy is most exposed to the net-zero transition
20% — GDP exposure
 The transition would result in a reallocation of jobs across sectors
misc · 2022 · market_landscape
The transition would result in a reallocation of jobs across sectors
200 — Job shifts
 The transition is exposed to a multitude of short-term risks
misc · 2022 · risk_register
The transition is exposed to a multitude of short-term risks
 However, the shift to a net-zero emissions world would also create opportunities for both businesses and countries
misc · 2022 · other
However, the shift to a net-zero emissions world would also create opportunities for both businesses and countries
 Potential actions for stakeholders to consider to drive a more orderly transition to net-zero
misc · 2022 · initiative_list
Potential actions for stakeholders to consider to drive a more orderly transition to net-zero
 Mobile is eating the world
BenedictEvans · cover
Mobile is eating the world
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