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Treemap Arc Catalog
...Revenue-per-User Multiple – OpenAI = In-the-Range
BondCap · competitive_analysis
...Revenue-per-User Multiple – OpenAI = In-the-Range
$23 — Annual Revenue per User
 So...We Have...High Revenue Growth + High Cash Burn + High Valuations + High Investment Levels = Good News for Consumers...Others TBD...
BondCap · case_study
So...We Have...High Revenue Growth + High Cash Burn + High Valuations + High Investment Levels = Good News for Consumers...Others TBD...
$3.2T — Market Capitalization
 So...We Have...High Revenue Growth + High Cash Burn + High Valuations + High Investment Levels = Good News for Consumers...Others TBD...
BondCap · case_study
So...We Have...High Revenue Growth + High Cash Burn + High Valuations + High Investment Levels = Good News for Consumers...Others TBD...
-$17B — Free cash flow
 Usage + Cost + Loss Growth = Unprecedented... What About Future Monetization + Profits?
BondCap · transition
Usage + Cost + Loss Growth = Unprecedented... What About Future Monetization + Profits?
 AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
BondCap · transition
AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
 To understand where AI model economics may be heading, one can look at the mounting tension between capabilities and costs.
BondCap · context
To understand where AI model economics may be heading, one can look at the mounting tension between capabilities and costs.
 Consumer AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
BondCap · key_messages
Consumer AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
 AI Company Landscape = Varying Degrees of Vertical Integration
BondCap · market_landscape
AI Company Landscape = Varying Degrees of Vertical Integration
 AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
BondCap · section_divider
AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
 AI – New Entrants = Rapidly Laying Groundwork
BondCap · section_divider
AI – New Entrants = Rapidly Laying Groundwork
 AI Monetization...Foundation Models = Consumer Subscription Models Driving Monetization...
BondCap · market_landscape
AI Monetization...Foundation Models = Consumer Subscription Models Driving Monetization...
$20 — Monthly Subscription Price
 ...AI Monetization...Foundation Models = Developer API Fees Driving Monetization
BondCap · market_landscape
...AI Monetization...Foundation Models = Developer API Fees Driving Monetization
 AI – New Entrants = Rapid Revenue Growth
BondCap · section_divider
AI – New Entrants = Rapid Revenue Growth
 AI Monetization – Foundation Models = OpenAI Revenue +1,050% Annually to $3.7B
BondCap · financial_analysis
AI Monetization – Foundation Models = OpenAI Revenue +1,050% Annually to $3.7B
$3.7B — OpenAI Revenue
 AI Monetization – API & Generative Search = Anthropic Annualized Revenue +20x to $2B in Eighteen Months
BondCap · case_study
AI Monetization – API & Generative Search = Anthropic Annualized Revenue +20x to $2B in Eighteen Months
$2B — Annualized Revenue
 AI Monetization – Generative Search = Perplexity Annualized Revenue +7.6x to $120MM in Fourteen Months
BondCap · case_study
AI Monetization – Generative Search = Perplexity Annualized Revenue +7.6x to $120MM in Fourteen Months
$120MM — Annualized Revenue
 AI Monetization – Enterprise Search + Agents = Glean Annualized Revenue +10x to $100MM in Twenty-Four Months
BondCap · case_study
AI Monetization – Enterprise Search + Agents = Glean Annualized Revenue +10x to $100MM in Twenty-Four Months
$100MM — Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR)
 AI Monetization – 2024 vs. 2018 = 35% Faster Ramp to $5MM ARR vs. SaaS Comparables, per Stripe
BondCap · benchmark_peers
AI Monetization – 2024 vs. 2018 = 35% Faster Ramp to $5MM ARR vs. SaaS Comparables, per Stripe
35% — Time to $5MM ARR
 AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
BondCap · section_divider
AI Monetization Possibilities = New Entrants & / Or Tech Incumbents?
 AI – Tech Incumbents = Broad & Steady Product / Feature Rollouts
BondCap · transition
AI – Tech Incumbents = Broad & Steady Product / Feature Rollouts
 Tech Incumbents = Optimizing Product Distribution to Roll Out AI
BondCap · market_landscape
Tech Incumbents = Optimizing Product Distribution to Roll Out AI
4.9B — Global User Base
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Canva – Background Remover & Magic Media (12/19)
BondCap · client_example
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Canva – Background Remover & Magic Media (12/19)
4B — Cumulative Uses
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Spotify – AI DJ (2/23)
BondCap · case_study
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Spotify – AI DJ (2/23)
60 — Global Markets with AI DJ Available
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Meta Platforms – Meta AI (9/23)
BondCap · case_study
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Meta Platforms – Meta AI (9/23)
1,000 — Monthly Active Users
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = X – Grok (11/23)
BondCap · case_study
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = X – Grok (11/23)
42x — Global Desktop Visits
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Google – Gemini & AI Overviews (12/23)
BondCap · case_study
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Google – Gemini & AI Overviews (12/23)
400MM — Gemini Chatbot Global MAUs
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Amazon – Rufus (2/24)
BondCap · case_study
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Amazon – Rufus (2/24)
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = TikTok – Symphony AI Assistant (6/24)
BondCap · case_study
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = TikTok – Symphony AI Assistant (6/24)
 Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Apple – Apple Intelligence (10/24)
BondCap · case_study
Tech Incumbent AI Rollouts = Apple – Apple Intelligence (10/24)
 AI – Tech Incumbents = Rapid Revenue + Customer Growth
BondCap · key_messages
AI – Tech Incumbents = Rapid Revenue + Customer Growth
 AI Monetization – ‘AI Product’ = Microsoft AI Revenue +175% to $13B Y/Y
BondCap · case_study
AI Monetization – ‘AI Product’ = Microsoft AI Revenue +175% to $13B Y/Y
$13B — Annual Run-Rate Revenue
 AI Monetization – Generative Search = xAI Annualized Revenue Up Materially in 2025
BondCap · financial_analysis
AI Monetization – Generative Search = xAI Annualized Revenue Up Materially in 2025
$1.0B — Annualized Revenue
 AI Monetization – AI Services = Palantir USA Commercial Customers +65% to 432 Y/Y
BondCap · client_example
AI Monetization – AI Services = Palantir USA Commercial Customers +65% to 432 Y/Y
432 — USA Commercial Customers
 AI Monetization Possibilities – Enterprise = Horizontal Platform & / Or Specialized Software?
BondCap · section_divider
AI Monetization Possibilities – Enterprise = Horizontal Platform & / Or Specialized Software?
 AI Monetization Possibilities – Enterprise = Horizontal Platform & / Or Specialized Software?
BondCap · transition
AI Monetization Possibilities – Enterprise = Horizontal Platform & / Or Specialized Software?
 Horizontal Enterprise Platform = SaaS Incumbents Or Large Language Model Challengers?
BondCap · transition
Horizontal Enterprise Platform = SaaS Incumbents Or Large Language Model Challengers?
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Broad & Steady Cadence
BondCap · market_landscape
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Broad & Steady Cadence
568 — AI mentions in earnings calls
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Microsoft GitHub Copilot – 6/22
BondCap · case_study
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Microsoft GitHub Copilot – 6/22
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Microsoft 365 Copilot – 3/23
BondCap · case_study
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Microsoft 365 Copilot – 3/23
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Adobe Firefly – 3/23
BondCap · case_study
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Adobe Firefly – 3/23
20 billion — Cumulative Digital Assets Created
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Atlassian Intelligence – 4/23
BondCap · case_study
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Atlassian Intelligence – 4/23
1,000K — Atlassian Intelligence Users
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Zoom AI Companion – 9/23
BondCap · case_study
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Zoom AI Companion – 9/23
4MM — Active Zoom Accounts
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Canva Magic Studio – 10/23
BondCap · case_study
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Canva Magic Studio – 10/23
16B — Cumulative AI tool uses
 Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Salesforce Agentforce – 9/24
BondCap · case_study
Enterprise SaaS Incumbent AI Rollouts = Salesforce Agentforce – 9/24
3,000 — Paid Agentforce Deals
 Horizontal Enterprise Platform = SaaS Incumbents Or Large Language Model Challengers?
BondCap · problem_statement
Horizontal Enterprise Platform = SaaS Incumbents Or Large Language Model Challengers?
 OpenAI ChatGPT = Potential Horizontal Enterprise Platform?...
BondCap · comparison_table
OpenAI ChatGPT = Potential Horizontal Enterprise Platform?...
20MM — Paid Users
 ...OpenAI ChatGPT = Potential Horizontal Enterprise Platform?
BondCap · market_landscape
...OpenAI ChatGPT = Potential Horizontal Enterprise Platform?
2M — Number of ChatGPT Business Users
 AI Monetization Possibilities – Enterprise = Horizontal Platform & / Or Specialized Software?
BondCap · transition
AI Monetization Possibilities – Enterprise = Horizontal Platform & / Or Specialized Software?
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