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In 2023, the global economy proved to be more resilient than anticipated and disinflation faster than expected amid a historical monetary policy tightening cycle
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
In 2023, the global economy proved to be more resilient than anticipated and disinflation faster than expected amid a historical monetary policy tightening cycle
3.1% — Real GDP growth
 The economic outlook for 2024 looks to be one steeped in transition; the key theme will be the search for equilibrium, marked by a collective effort to find a new normal
MorganStanley · 2024 · executive_summary
The economic outlook for 2024 looks to be one steeped in transition; the key theme will be the search for equilibrium, marked by a collective effort to find a new normal
2.8% — Global GDP growth
 Developed markets are likely to experience modest to moderate economic activity in 2024 – weighed down by cost fatigue but supported by labor market resilience
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Developed markets are likely to experience modest to moderate economic activity in 2024 – weighed down by cost fatigue but supported by labor market resilience
 While some advanced economies are expected to stagnate in 2024, most should accelerate on cooler inflation, easing monetary policy and resilient employment growth
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
While some advanced economies are expected to stagnate in 2024, most should accelerate on cooler inflation, easing monetary policy and resilient employment growth
1.8% — GDP growth
 Softened BRICS in 2024 as India leads the way, China struggles with structural headwinds, Brazil flirts with a recession and South Africa grows below trend
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Softened BRICS in 2024 as India leads the way, China struggles with structural headwinds, Brazil flirts with a recession and South Africa grows below trend
 Key dynamics to observe across these economies include resilience of domestic demand and exposure to geopolitical risks, El Niño and commodities prices
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Key dynamics to observe across these economies include resilience of domestic demand and exposure to geopolitical risks, El Niño and commodities prices
 Four years after the onset of the pandemic, most major economies are above pre-pandemic GDP levels but below pre-pandemic GDP growth trends
MorganStanley · 2024 · market_landscape
Four years after the onset of the pandemic, most major economies are above pre-pandemic GDP levels but below pre-pandemic GDP growth trends
-4.7% — Real GDP level vs. pre-pandemic trend
 Rebalancing labor markets have led to a gradual easing of wage growth pressures, but positive inflation-adjusted wage growth continues to drive purchasing power
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Rebalancing labor markets have led to a gradual easing of wage growth pressures, but positive inflation-adjusted wage growth continues to drive purchasing power
 Supply conditions will be an important driver of inflationary dynamics in 2024, and while better balance between supply and demand is expected, risks will linger
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Supply conditions will be an important driver of inflationary dynamics in 2024, and while better balance between supply and demand is expected, risks will linger
 Disinflationary momentum should continue across most economies in 2024 assuming soft demand growth and rebounding to steady supply conditions
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Disinflationary momentum should continue across most economies in 2024 assuming soft demand growth and rebounding to steady supply conditions
 Easing inflation and slowing economic momentum will push central banks to recalibrate policy, but lingering inflation fears will mean gradual, instead of rapid, rate cuts
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Easing inflation and slowing economic momentum will push central banks to recalibrate policy, but lingering inflation fears will mean gradual, instead of rapid, rate cuts
 Stronger investment and productivity growth from GenAI create an opportunity for accelerated global economic growth over the next decade
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Stronger investment and productivity growth from GenAI create an opportunity for accelerated global economic growth over the next decade
$3.4t — GDP growth contribution
 A “higher-for-longer” scenario: a delayed easing cycle by central banks amid sticky inflation trends could lead to recessionary conditions in key advanced economies
MorganStanley · 2024 · scenario_analysis
A “higher-for-longer” scenario: a delayed easing cycle by central banks amid sticky inflation trends could lead to recessionary conditions in key advanced economies
0.8ppt — Real GDP growth
 Persistently elevated energy prices in the long run would constrain the long-run potential GDP of Latin America and the EU the most
MorganStanley · 2024 · scenario_analysis
Persistently elevated energy prices in the long run would constrain the long-run potential GDP of Latin America and the EU the most
-4.81% — Percentage change in real GDP
 We foresee cooler, but still moderate, economic activity in 2024 with slower private sector activity, easing inflation and a modest rise in unemployment
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
We foresee cooler, but still moderate, economic activity in 2024 with slower private sector activity, easing inflation and a modest rise in unemployment
1.8% — Real GDP growth
 Consumer enthusiasm will likely dim in 2024 amid softer employment, cost fatigue and elevated rates, but positive income growth should uphold spending
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Consumer enthusiasm will likely dim in 2024 amid softer employment, cost fatigue and elevated rates, but positive income growth should uphold spending
216k — Nonfarm employment
 The Fed's dovish pivot amid rapid disinflation sets the stage for policy easing this year; we foresee 100bps of "policy recalibration" rate cuts in 2024, starting in May
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
The Fed's dovish pivot amid rapid disinflation sets the stage for policy easing this year; we foresee 100bps of "policy recalibration" rate cuts in 2024, starting in May
100bps — Federal funds rate
 The Canadian economy is expected to experience a continued slowdown through mid-2024, constrained by elevated debt servicing costs and cost fatigue
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
The Canadian economy is expected to experience a continued slowdown through mid-2024, constrained by elevated debt servicing costs and cost fatigue
0.4% — Real GDP growth
 Following stagnation, the euro area economy will see a gradual rebound in 2024 as inflation reaches the target and the ECB begins cutting rates
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Following stagnation, the euro area economy will see a gradual rebound in 2024 as inflation reaches the target and the ECB begins cutting rates
0.8% — GDP growth
 The labor market has remained resilient, while gradually rebalancing, though wage growth will remain elevated on the back of indexation to past inflation
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
The labor market has remained resilient, while gradually rebalancing, though wage growth will remain elevated on the back of indexation to past inflation
5% — Nominal wage growth
 The gap in performance between Germany and Southern Europe will gradually close over 2024; Central and Eastern Europe will rebound strongly
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
The gap in performance between Germany and Southern Europe will gradually close over 2024; Central and Eastern Europe will rebound strongly
3.7% — y/y real GDP growth
 Cross-country inflation differentials will diminish in 2024, with most EU Member States seeing inflation in the 1%-3% range
MorganStanley · 2024 · market_landscape
Cross-country inflation differentials will diminish in 2024, with most EU Member States seeing inflation in the 1%-3% range
1%-3% — HICP y/y inflation
 Constrained household incomes, depressed housing activity and weak capex will limit growth in 2024, despite easing inflation and interest rate cuts
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Constrained household incomes, depressed housing activity and weak capex will limit growth in 2024, despite easing inflation and interest rate cuts
0.9% — Real GDP growth
 Soft consumer spending, cautious capex and weak global growth will constrain growth; still, easing inflation will support purchasing power as the BoJ exits its negative rate policy
MorganStanley · 2024 · market_landscape
Soft consumer spending, cautious capex and weak global growth will constrain growth; still, easing inflation will support purchasing power as the BoJ exits its negative rate policy
0.8% — Real GDP growth
 The Australian economy is to experience a period of below-trend growth and lower inflation as a direct response to the Reserve Bank's monetary policy tightening
MorganStanley · 2024 · market_landscape
The Australian economy is to experience a period of below-trend growth and lower inflation as a direct response to the Reserve Bank's monetary policy tightening
1.9% — GDP growth
 After surprisingly robust performance in 2023, most Latin American economies will slow down in 2024 due to tight monetary policy and fading temporary tailwinds
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
After surprisingly robust performance in 2023, most Latin American economies will slow down in 2024 due to tight monetary policy and fading temporary tailwinds
1.1% — GDP growth
 Inflation in many LatAm economies has dropped below 5%, allowing central banks to ease monetary policy
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Inflation in many LatAm economies has dropped below 5%, allowing central banks to ease monetary policy
5% — Inflation rate
 A combination of cyclical and structural headwinds means mainland China won't be the main engine of global growth in 2024, even if some industries will outperform
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
A combination of cyclical and structural headwinds means mainland China won't be the main engine of global growth in 2024, even if some industries will outperform
4.5% — GDP growth
 Indian economy continues to exhibit resilience supported by solid domestic demand; monetary easing likely to begin this summer after an extended pause
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Indian economy continues to exhibit resilience supported by solid domestic demand; monetary easing likely to begin this summer after an extended pause
6.3% — GDP growth
 Most Southeast Asian economies ended 2023 with lower GDP growth, but domestic demand is expected to gradually firm and exports slowly rebound through 2024
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Most Southeast Asian economies ended 2023 with lower GDP growth, but domestic demand is expected to gradually firm and exports slowly rebound through 2024
 Disinflationary forces are likely to remain in place through 2024, notwithstanding El Niño and geopolitical risks, allowing central banks to gradually ease policy
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Disinflationary forces are likely to remain in place through 2024, notwithstanding El Niño and geopolitical risks, allowing central banks to gradually ease policy
 Growth in the MENA region is expected to pick up in 2024, following a dip this year, with disinflation underway
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Growth in the MENA region is expected to pick up in 2024, following a dip this year, with disinflation underway
4.4% — GDP growth
 Barring some large lagging economies, real economic activity is set to remain relatively strong across Africa, with inflation and interest rates set to decline from 2024
MorganStanley · 2024 · industry_trends
Barring some large lagging economies, real economic activity is set to remain relatively strong across Africa, with inflation and interest rates set to decline from 2024
 SEA’s green economy can drive growth, energy security and climate impact
Bain · 2025 · key_messages
SEA’s green economy can drive growth, energy security and climate impact
~4%-5% — GDP growth
 But approaching decarbonization through a sector lens has fallen short of delivering climate and growth outcomes
Bain · 2025 · problem_statement
But approaching decarbonization through a sector lens has fallen short of delivering climate and growth outcomes
 Over five years, SEA’s Green Economy Report repeatedly identifies the same systemic barriers that limit scale and results
Bain · 2025 · problem_statement
Over five years, SEA’s Green Economy Report repeatedly identifies the same systemic barriers that limit scale and results
 Why adopt an integrated systems approach now? To unlock value, ensure energy security, and drive lasting climate impact
Bain · 2025 · framework_other
Why adopt an integrated systems approach now? To unlock value, ensure energy security, and drive lasting climate impact
 Analyzing interconnected systems is key to identifying systemic barriers and high-impact systems-level solutions to accelerate SEA decarbonization
Bain · 2025 · framework_other
Analyzing interconnected systems is key to identifying systemic barriers and high-impact systems-level solutions to accelerate SEA decarbonization
 This report explores three core systems-level solutions important for SEA decarbonization, along with essential enabling solutions for their success
Bain · 2025 · framework_other
This report explores three core systems-level solutions important for SEA decarbonization, along with essential enabling solutions for their success
 Leveraging systems-level solutions is projected to have significant impact in 2030 across GDP, employment, and emissions reduction
Bain · 2025 · impact_sizing
Leveraging systems-level solutions is projected to have significant impact in 2030 across GDP, employment, and emissions reduction
+2% — GDP uplift, job creation, emissions reduction
 SEA and wider APAC have common interests, benefits in building green economy
Bain · 2025 · context
SEA and wider APAC have common interests, benefits in building green economy
~40% — FDI contribution
 Collaboration with SEA can bring direct and indirect benefits for wider APAC
Bain · 2025 · framework_other
Collaboration with SEA can bring direct and indirect benefits for wider APAC
 Three systems-level solutions could attract up to $55 billion annually by 2030 and potentially serve to shore up FDI during an economic slowdown
Bain · 2025 · market_sizing
Three systems-level solutions could attract up to $55 billion annually by 2030 and potentially serve to shore up FDI during an economic slowdown
$55 billion — FDI inflow
 CEOs, investors, and governments should seize the opportunity at hand
Bain · 2025 · recommendation
CEOs, investors, and governments should seize the opportunity at hand
 Our recommendations will address systemic obstacles to accelerate decarbonization across the three system-level solutions
Bain · 2025 · recommendation
Our recommendations will address systemic obstacles to accelerate decarbonization across the three system-level solutions
 Asia-Pacific and SEA have key roles to play in global decarbonization as both the source and the solution
Bain · 2025 · context
Asia-Pacific and SEA have key roles to play in global decarbonization as both the source and the solution
50% — Global GHG emissions
 Asia-Pacific and SEA are working to meet 2030 targets with clear gaps to be closed; much work to be done to meet future 2040/2050 commitments
Bain · 2025 · industry_trends
Asia-Pacific and SEA are working to meet 2030 targets with clear gaps to be closed; much work to be done to meet future 2040/2050 commitments
 Based on current trajectories, most nations will fall short of 2030 targets
Bain · 2025 · data_table
Based on current trajectories, most nations will fall short of 2030 targets
13.4 — Emissions level
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