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Treemap Arc Catalog
AI safety is attracting more talent... yet remains extremely neglected
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
AI safety is attracting more talent... yet remains extremely neglected
30x — Researcher headcount
 Funding secured, though trailing far behind what goes into capabilities
AirStreetCapital · financial_analysis
Funding secured, though trailing far behind what goes into capabilities
$2.00B — Funding amount
 Language Model Alignment: Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback
AirStreetCapital · case_study
Language Model Alignment: Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback
100 — Win Rate vs. Human Summaries (%)
 Mechanistic interpretability – can we reverse-engineer neural networks?
AirStreetCapital · context
Mechanistic interpretability – can we reverse-engineer neural networks?
 Goal misgeneralization – agents can learn the right skills but the wrong objective
AirStreetCapital · case_study
Goal misgeneralization – agents can learn the right skills but the wrong objective
 Measuring moral behavior in artificial agents
AirStreetCapital · case_study
Measuring moral behavior in artificial agents
60% — Cumulative Immorality
 Conjecture is the first well funded startup purely focusing on AGI alignment
AirStreetCapital · client_example
Conjecture is the first well funded startup purely focusing on AGI alignment
 9 predictions for the next 12 months
AirStreetCapital · key_takeaways
9 predictions for the next 12 months
 Economic growth to remain weak, but with inflationary pressures easing
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Economic growth to remain weak, but with inflationary pressures easing
 Inflation expected to fall, cuts to interest rates likely
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Inflation expected to fall, cuts to interest rates likely
 European prime capital values expected to bottom out in 2024
RolandBerger · 2024 · market_landscape
European prime capital values expected to bottom out in 2024
63% — Capital value change
 Deal activity expected to pick up in the second half of 2024
RolandBerger · 2024 · market_landscape
Deal activity expected to pick up in the second half of 2024
10% — Investment Volume
 A year of slow recovery in prospect
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
A year of slow recovery in prospect
10% — Office Leasing Volumes
 Supply side tightening for best quality space
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Supply side tightening for best quality space
 Demand to remain subdued, new stock delivery to slow down significantly
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Demand to remain subdued, new stock delivery to slow down significantly
 Prime rents still expected to grow
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Prime rents still expected to grow
4% — Annual Prime Logistics Rental Changes
 Weak development activity to exacerbate pressure on affordability
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Weak development activity to exacerbate pressure on affordability
3% — Number of Households
 Pressure to integrate ESG practices likely to intensify
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Pressure to integrate ESG practices likely to intensify
49% — EU housing stock energy rating
 Retail fundamentals expected to improve in 2024
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Retail fundamentals expected to improve in 2024
 Sales and footfall to continue to improve, generating growth in prime rents
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Sales and footfall to continue to improve, generating growth in prime rents
3% — Prime Rental Growth
 Continued recovery in international long-haul leisure travel
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Continued recovery in international long-haul leisure travel
47% — International Arrivals
 Favourable supply and demand dynamics anticipated
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Favourable supply and demand dynamics anticipated
 Appetite for data centre space expected to remain strong despite higher rates
RolandBerger · 2024 · market_landscape
Appetite for data centre space expected to remain strong despite higher rates
667MW — MW
 Market preferences evolve as awareness of climate change grows
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Market preferences evolve as awareness of climate change grows
25% — Rental Premium
 Market preferences evolve as awareness of climate change grows
RolandBerger · 2024 · industry_trends
Market preferences evolve as awareness of climate change grows
 A soft-landing in the U.S. in 2024 is now the base case
JPMorgan · 2024 · context
A soft-landing in the U.S. in 2024 is now the base case
2.0% — Real GDP
 Consumers are bending, but not yet breaking
JPMorgan · 2024 · situation_overview
Consumers are bending, but not yet breaking
9.9% — Household debt service ratio
 Tight labor markets and firm wage growth should support consumption this year
JPMorgan · 2024 · industry_trends
Tight labor markets and firm wage growth should support consumption this year
3.7% — Unemployment rate
 That said, labor market momentum is slowing
JPMorgan · 2024 · industry_trends
That said, labor market momentum is slowing
289K — Nonfarm payroll gains
 Deteriorating federal finances pose long-term risks to growth and interest rates
JPMorgan · 2024 · industry_trends
Deteriorating federal finances pose long-term risks to growth and interest rates
116.0% — Federal debt as % of GDP
 Earnings growth should be positive this year after a mixed 2023
JPMorgan · 2024 · financial_analysis
Earnings growth should be positive this year after a mixed 2023
13% — S&P 500 EPS growth
 And while investors remain concerned around market concentration...
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
And while investors remain concerned around market concentration...
33.7% — Market capitalization weight
 ...growth companies have strong balance sheets and are fueling R&D spending
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
...growth companies have strong balance sheets and are fueling R&D spending
52% — Corporate cash as a % of current assets
 Value should also be supported in a higher rate environment
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
Value should also be supported in a higher rate environment
0.56 — Relative forward P/E ratio
 Even though small caps are cheap, they're exposed to higher rates
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
Even though small caps are cheap, they're exposed to higher rates
41% — Percent of unprofitable companies
 Inflation downtrend should continue
JPMorgan · 2024 · industry_trends
Inflation downtrend should continue
3.1% — CPI
 Though firm labor markets and sticky inflation suggests the Fed doesn't need to be in a rush to cut rates
JPMorgan · 2024 · industry_trends
Though firm labor markets and sticky inflation suggests the Fed doesn't need to be in a rush to cut rates
5.38% — Federal funds rate
 While we believe we are passed peak yields, rates are still attractive in fixed income
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
While we believe we are passed peak yields, rates are still attractive in fixed income
 Notably, should yields decline, bond returns could be quite strong
JPMorgan · 2024 · financial_analysis
Notably, should yields decline, bond returns could be quite strong
21.0% — Total return
 The potential for a weaker dollar...
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
The potential for a weaker dollar...
 ...attractive valuations, more shareholder-friendly activity...
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
...attractive valuations, more shareholder-friendly activity...
 ...and a backdrop of higher inflation and interest rates suggest optimism around international investing
JPMorgan · 2024 · market_landscape
...and a backdrop of higher inflation and interest rates suggest optimism around international investing
4.4% — Annualized avg. total return
 In an election year, investors should be reminded that it is policies that matter for markets, not politics
JPMorgan · 2024 · context
In an election year, investors should be reminded that it is policies that matter for markets, not politics
10.1% — Average annual return
 Above all, diversify...
JPMorgan · 2024 · heatmap_matrix
Above all, diversify...
 When will the knot finally unravel?
RolandBerger · 2024 · cover
When will the knot finally unravel?
 The Nordics PE market ranks fourth in Europe after the UK and Ireland, DACH and France in terms of total transaction volume
RolandBerger · 2024 · market_landscape
The Nordics PE market ranks fourth in Europe after the UK and Ireland, DACH and France in terms of total transaction volume
13% — Transaction volume
 Significant year-on-year decrease of ~24% in European transactions in 2023 across all
RolandBerger · 2024 · market_landscape
Significant year-on-year decrease of ~24% in European transactions in 2023 across all
-24% — Transaction volume
 Technology, software & digital solutions and business services & logistics recorded the highest number of deals in Nordics in '23 - Similar pattern in H1 '24
RolandBerger · 2024 · market_landscape
Technology, software & digital solutions and business services & logistics recorded the highest number of deals in Nordics in '23 - Similar pattern in H1 '24
-47% — Number of deals
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