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Waste-to-energy pathways are attractive but policies are expected to make recycling more compelling in the long term
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
Waste-to-energy pathways are attractive but policies are expected to make recycling more compelling in the long term
450-700 — Municipal solid waste feedstock potential
 Algae are micro and macro organisms that rapidly grow in water from photosynthesis
Kearney · 2020 · context
Algae are micro and macro organisms that rapidly grow in water from photosynthesis
 Algae are promising but still immature and require strict regulations because of high water requirements
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Algae are promising but still immature and require strict regulations because of high water requirements
 Energy crops are non-edible crops specifically grown for bioenergy uses
Kearney · 2020 · client_example
Energy crops are non-edible crops specifically grown for bioenergy uses
 Energy crops are promising but can have a detrimental impact on food by changing land allocation
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Energy crops are promising but can have a detrimental impact on food by changing land allocation
2,950-4,950 — Mtoe
 In total, one-third of the global theoretical biomass potential would be sustainably exploitable in 2060
Kearney · 2020 · market_sizing
In total, one-third of the global theoretical biomass potential would be sustainably exploitable in 2060
35% — Theoretical biomass potential
 Agricultural residues and energy crops will be the two main sources of biomass supply by 2060
Kearney · 2020 · market_sizing
Agricultural residues and energy crops will be the two main sources of biomass supply by 2060
2,950–4,950 — Mtoe
 As a result, bioenergy could sustainably supply ~25% of the world energy demand in 2060
Kearney · 2020 · market_sizing
As a result, bioenergy could sustainably supply ~25% of the world energy demand in 2060
25% — World energy demand contribution
 The future bioenergy potential is enough to power either the entire transport, buildings, or industry sector
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
The future bioenergy potential is enough to power either the entire transport, buildings, or industry sector
3,200–5,900 — Mtoe
 For each biofuel, what is the best combination of processing method and feedstock?
Kearney · 2020 · context
For each biofuel, what is the best combination of processing method and feedstock?
 Processing technologies for advanced biomass were commercially developed during the 20th century
Kearney · 2020 · timeline
Processing technologies for advanced biomass were commercially developed during the 20th century
 Today, technologies also used to transform conventional resources are more mature than those mainly applicable to biomass
Kearney · 2020 · framework_other
Today, technologies also used to transform conventional resources are more mature than those mainly applicable to biomass
 Bioenergy relies on multiple possible combinations of feedstock and conversion pathways
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
Bioenergy relies on multiple possible combinations of feedstock and conversion pathways
 Despite the variety of conversion routes for a given feedstock, intermediates act as a bottleneck in the processing chain
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
Despite the variety of conversion routes for a given feedstock, intermediates act as a bottleneck in the processing chain
 Intermediates are segmentation points: they can be produced from most feedstock but determine the obtained biofuel
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
Intermediates are segmentation points: they can be produced from most feedstock but determine the obtained biofuel
 Based on the targeted interest fraction, intermediates are selectively extracted from biomass and can be converted into biofuels
Kearney · 2020 · other
Based on the targeted interest fraction, intermediates are selectively extracted from biomass and can be converted into biofuels
 The assessment of feedstock to biofuel pathways is a two-step approach
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
The assessment of feedstock to biofuel pathways is a two-step approach
 Conditioning and pretreatment turn raw biomass into intermediate, suitable matter for conversion
Kearney · 2020 · other
Conditioning and pretreatment turn raw biomass into intermediate, suitable matter for conversion
 Most conditioning methods are applicable to a wide variety of feedstocks and can significantly improve value chain attractiveness
Kearney · 2020 · comparison_table
Most conditioning methods are applicable to a wide variety of feedstocks and can significantly improve value chain attractiveness
 Pretreatment technologies mostly have specific outputs; their efficiency and capex heavily impact the value chain attractiveness
Kearney · 2020 · comparison_table
Pretreatment technologies mostly have specific outputs; their efficiency and capex heavily impact the value chain attractiveness
 Conversion technologies are strongly linked with the pretreatment step but also impact the value chain economics with their efficiency and capex
Kearney · 2020 · comparison_table
Conversion technologies are strongly linked with the pretreatment step but also impact the value chain economics with their efficiency and capex
 What is the best biofuel x market segment combination?
Kearney · 2020 · problem_statement
What is the best biofuel x market segment combination?
 Historically, interest for biofuels started after the oil shocks in the 1970s
Kearney · 2020 · timeline
Historically, interest for biofuels started after the oil shocks in the 1970s
 Some promising biofuels are still in early stage or deployment phase
Kearney · 2020 · framework_other
Some promising biofuels are still in early stage or deployment phase
 Twelve biofuels—solid, liquid, and gaseous—are studied in the factbook
Kearney · 2020 · other
Twelve biofuels—solid, liquid, and gaseous—are studied in the factbook
 To assess biofuels’ attractiveness, the most performant biofuels are selected, and their competitive advantage is evaluated in the relevant market
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
To assess biofuels’ attractiveness, the most performant biofuels are selected, and their competitive advantage is evaluated in the relevant market
 Liquid and gaseous biofuels are the most promising bioproducts with a wide applicability
Kearney · 2020 · matrix_nxn
Liquid and gaseous biofuels are the most promising bioproducts with a wide applicability
 Technical attractiveness is strongly linked to energy performance, GHG emission weighted by maturity stage
Kearney · 2020 · comparison_table
Technical attractiveness is strongly linked to energy performance, GHG emission weighted by maturity stage
 Biogasoline is chemically similar to gasoline and thus could play a key role in energy transition with higher maturity
Kearney · 2020 · case_study
Biogasoline is chemically similar to gasoline and thus could play a key role in energy transition with higher maturity
 Renewable diesel has higher potential vs. biodiesel since it is chemically similar to diesel, but it is not competitive yet
Kearney · 2020 · case_study
Renewable diesel has higher potential vs. biodiesel since it is chemically similar to diesel, but it is not competitive yet
 Bio jet fuels are the most promising way to decarbonize aviation, but are not competitive yet and lack policy support
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Bio jet fuels are the most promising way to decarbonize aviation, but are not competitive yet and lack policy support
50% to 95% — GHG emissions
 Biomethane is a promising alternative to decarbonize heat and power supply potentially at a lower cost than natural gas
Kearney · 2020 · case_study
Biomethane is a promising alternative to decarbonize heat and power supply potentially at a lower cost than natural gas
5-15 — LCA GHG emissions
 Primary energy demand for biomass can be split in four sectors: transport, energy generation, industry, and buildings
Kearney · 2020 · context
Primary energy demand for biomass can be split in four sectors: transport, energy generation, industry, and buildings
 In OECD countries, more than half of the bioenergy generated comes from solid sources, except in the transport sector
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
In OECD countries, more than half of the bioenergy generated comes from solid sources, except in the transport sector
109 — Mtoe
 Economic attractiveness is strongly linked to policy support and forecasted growth in the preferred market segment
Kearney · 2020 · comparison_table
Economic attractiveness is strongly linked to policy support and forecasted growth in the preferred market segment
 Promising sectors potential depends on regulation and dependencies
Kearney · 2020 · matrix_nxn
Promising sectors potential depends on regulation and dependencies
 Overall, energy and transport are the top two contributors to bioenergy growth forecast until 2040
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Overall, energy and transport are the top two contributors to bioenergy growth forecast until 2040
1,681 — Mtoe
 Bioenergies will contribute to the decarbonization and electrification of the energy sector
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Bioenergies will contribute to the decarbonization and electrification of the energy sector
7,155 — Mtoe
 About 50% of total bioenergy growth by 2040 will come from the power segment since storage provides competitive advantage vs. other must-run renewables
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
About 50% of total bioenergy growth by 2040 will come from the power segment since storage provides competitive advantage vs. other must-run renewables
50% — Bioenergy growth
 In transport, trucks will contribute to 43% of biofuels growth but new applications in the aviation and shipping sectors offer longer-term potentials
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
In transport, trucks will contribute to 43% of biofuels growth but new applications in the aviation and shipping sectors offer longer-term potentials
43% — Biofuels growth contribution
 Biofuels have high potential in the trucks industry since other renewable sources are limited by technical constraints
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
Biofuels have high potential in the trucks industry since other renewable sources are limited by technical constraints
980 — Mtoe
 Biofuels are the only reliable renewable alternative for aviation, whose energy demand is expected to grow by 65% by 2040
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Biofuels are the only reliable renewable alternative for aviation, whose energy demand is expected to grow by 65% by 2040
65% — Biofuels share
 International, national, and corporate regulations are struggling to achieve the decarbonization of the aviation sector
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
International, national, and corporate regulations are struggling to achieve the decarbonization of the aviation sector
 Biofuels are the only reliable alternative to decarbonize the shipping industry
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Biofuels are the only reliable alternative to decarbonize the shipping industry
3% — Biofuels share (%)
 Renewable diesel for road transports and biogas in power generation are the best medium-term opportunities for biofuels
Kearney · 2020 · strategic_options
Renewable diesel for road transports and biogas in power generation are the best medium-term opportunities for biofuels
 Advanced biofuels market dynamics show distinct medium- and long-term markets
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
Advanced biofuels market dynamics show distinct medium- and long-term markets
 World biofuel demand is overwhelmingly dominated by traditional biofuels
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
World biofuel demand is overwhelmingly dominated by traditional biofuels
1,150 — Mtoe
 The demand is driven by Southeast Asia and Africa but developed countries are favorable markets for advanced bioenergy
Kearney · 2020 · geographic_map
The demand is driven by Southeast Asia and Africa but developed countries are favorable markets for advanced bioenergy
677 — Mtoe
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