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Oil demand could peak in the next two to five years
McKinsey · 2022 · industry_trends
Oil demand could peak in the next two to five years
2025 — Liquids demand
 Gas demand is projected to grow by 10% in the next decade in all scenarios
McKinsey · 2022 · scenario_analysis
Gas demand is projected to grow by 10% in the next decade in all scenarios
10% — Natural gas demand
 Transport and new industrial uses could drive two-thirds of hydrogen demand growth to 2035
McKinsey · 2022 · market_sizing
Transport and new industrial uses could drive two-thirds of hydrogen demand growth to 2035
536 — Hydrogen demand (Mt)
 New advanced feedstocks will likely be necessary to meet the growing demand for sustainable fuels
McKinsey · 2022 · industry_trends
New advanced feedstocks will likely be necessary to meet the growing demand for sustainable fuels
400 Mt — Sustainable fuel demand (Mt)
 Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS)
McKinsey · 2022 · key_takeaways
Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS)
4.2 Gt — CCUS uptake
 New energy technologies are growing from niche to significant parts of the energy system across scenarios
McKinsey · 2022 · industry_trends
New energy technologies are growing from niche to significant parts of the energy system across scenarios
100x — Energy demand/uptake
 Energy may attract increasing investment, with most growth being in RES and decarbonization technologies
McKinsey · 2022 · industry_trends
Energy may attract increasing investment, with most growth being in RES and decarbonization technologies
4% — CAGR
 Global emissions remain far from a 1.5° pathway, even if all countries deliver on their current commitments
McKinsey · 2022 · market_landscape
Global emissions remain far from a 1.5° pathway, even if all countries deliver on their current commitments
1.5° — Global net energy-related CO2 emissions
 Hydrogen (H2) could play a major role in various energy applications, contributing to global decarbonization
Kearney · 2020 · context
Hydrogen (H2) could play a major role in various energy applications, contributing to global decarbonization
 Blue and green hydrogen sources offer potential decarbonization solutions, requiring either CCS deployment or use of renewables (1/2)
Kearney · 2020 · context
Blue and green hydrogen sources offer potential decarbonization solutions, requiring either CCS deployment or use of renewables (1/2)
 Blue and green hydrogen sources offer potential decarbonization solutions, requiring either CCS deployment or use of renewables (2/2)
Kearney · 2020 · context
Blue and green hydrogen sources offer potential decarbonization solutions, requiring either CCS deployment or use of renewables (2/2)
 Hydrogen can be converted into multiple energy carriers, offering a broad range of storage and transportation options
Kearney · 2020 · context
Hydrogen can be converted into multiple energy carriers, offering a broad range of storage and transportation options
 While brown technologies are the most mature, blue and green should close the gap by 2030; conditioning transportation remains costly (1/2)
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
While brown technologies are the most mature, blue and green should close the gap by 2030; conditioning transportation remains costly (1/2)
$9.50 — Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH)
 While brown technologies are the most mature, blue and green should close the gap by 2030; conditioning transportation remains costly (2/2)
Kearney · 2020 · executive_summary
While brown technologies are the most mature, blue and green should close the gap by 2030; conditioning transportation remains costly (2/2)
 Hydrogen is being tested or implemented in a broad range of industrial processes, mobility solutions, power generation, and gas energy
Kearney · 2020 · context
Hydrogen is being tested or implemented in a broad range of industrial processes, mobility solutions, power generation, and gas energy
115 Mt — Annual hydrogen consumption
 Private companies and governments are investing more in the clean hydrogen economy
Kearney · 2020 · industry_trends
Private companies and governments are investing more in the clean hydrogen economy
 Most hydrogen business models require policy support, with heavy-duty transportation being the most promising one in the current context (1/2)
Kearney · 2020 · key_messages
Most hydrogen business models require policy support, with heavy-duty transportation being the most promising one in the current context (1/2)
$220 per tCO2 — Carbon abatement cost
 Most hydrogen business models require policy support, with heavy-duty transportation being the most promising one in the current context (2/2)
Kearney · 2020 · key_messages
Most hydrogen business models require policy support, with heavy-duty transportation being the most promising one in the current context (2/2)
$60 — CO2 abatement cost
 Hydrogen's role in the energy transition
Kearney · 2020 · section_divider
Hydrogen's role in the energy transition
 Global warming can have a dramatic impact on ecosystems and societies
Kearney · 2020 · context
Global warming can have a dramatic impact on ecosystems and societies
2.0°C — Global temperature increase
 At current emission levels, we only have about 10 years left in the estimated carbon budget for global warming of 1.5°C
Kearney · 2020 · context
At current emission levels, we only have about 10 years left in the estimated carbon budget for global warming of 1.5°C
10 years — Remaining carbon budget
 Hydrogen could partially address GHG emissions as a fuel substitute in sectors responsible for more than 65% of global emissions.
Kearney · 2020 · problem_statement
Hydrogen could partially address GHG emissions as a fuel substitute in sectors responsible for more than 65% of global emissions.
65% — Global GHG emissions
 Hydrogen provides multiple pathways enabled by various production technologies and applications across its value chain
Kearney · 2020 · value_chain
Hydrogen provides multiple pathways enabled by various production technologies and applications across its value chain
 Hydrogen will potentially play a major role in the Energy Transition as a link between multiple energy sources and industrial applications
Kearney · 2020 · value_chain
Hydrogen will potentially play a major role in the Energy Transition as a link between multiple energy sources and industrial applications
 Hydrogen is competing with other low carbon solutions that tackle similar applications
Kearney · 2020 · matrix_nxn
Hydrogen is competing with other low carbon solutions that tackle similar applications
 Hydrogen is the lightest molecule with the highest gravimetric energy density
Kearney · 2020 · context
Hydrogen is the lightest molecule with the highest gravimetric energy density
 About 118 Mt of H2 are produced each year and release about 830 Mt of CO2, mainly from fossil fuels
Kearney · 2020 · market_landscape
About 118 Mt of H2 are produced each year and release about 830 Mt of CO2, mainly from fossil fuels
118 Mt — Global hydrogen production
 H2 conversion technologies can be split into thermochemical, electrolysis, microbial, and photolytic
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
H2 conversion technologies can be split into thermochemical, electrolysis, microbial, and photolytic
 Natural production sources of H2 have been found at different places but are not exploited
Kearney · 2020 · context
Natural production sources of H2 have been found at different places but are not exploited
~98% — H2 content
 Electrolysis was the first H2 production technology deployed but was overtaken by fossil fuel-based technologies in the early 1970s
Kearney · 2020 · timeline
Electrolysis was the first H2 production technology deployed but was overtaken by fossil fuel-based technologies in the early 1970s
 Among production technologies, thermochemical sources benefit from lower cost and high efficiency but are GHG emitters
Kearney · 2020 · comparison_table
Among production technologies, thermochemical sources benefit from lower cost and high efficiency but are GHG emitters
0.9-1.8 — LCOH
 H2 is separated from CH4 at a high temperature in a steam methane reformer while producing CO and CO2
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
H2 is separated from CH4 at a high temperature in a steam methane reformer while producing CO and CO2
0.9-1.9 — Cost estimate
 Gasification is a substoichiometric reaction occurring at a high temperature where fossil fuel is converted to syngas containing mainly H2 and CO
Kearney · 2020 · other
Gasification is a substoichiometric reaction occurring at a high temperature where fossil fuel is converted to syngas containing mainly H2 and CO
1.6-2.2 — Cost estimate
 Autothermal reforming is a combination of a exothermic POX reaction and a endothermic steam reforming
Kearney · 2020 · other
Autothermal reforming is a combination of a exothermic POX reaction and a endothermic steam reforming
78-82 — Efficiency
 Syngas is a mixture of H2, CO, and other gases that comes out of SMR, ATR, and gasification reactors
Kearney · 2020 · data_table
Syngas is a mixture of H2, CO, and other gases that comes out of SMR, ATR, and gasification reactors
 Depending on purity, syngas can either undergo multiple processes to extract H2 or be converted into liquid fuels
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
Depending on purity, syngas can either undergo multiple processes to extract H2 or be converted into liquid fuels
99.9% — H2 purity
 The H2/CO ratio has a high impact on end-application performance and potential uses, and controlling it allows greater flexibility
Kearney · 2020 · analyze_data
The H2/CO ratio has a high impact on end-application performance and potential uses, and controlling it allows greater flexibility
6.0 — H2/CO ratio
 Combining CCS with thermochemical production sources could reduce CO2 emissions
Kearney · 2020 · process_diagram
Combining CCS with thermochemical production sources could reduce CO2 emissions
89% — Capture rate
 Pyrolysis requires a lower temperature than other technologies and happens in a vacuum chamber
Kearney · 2020 · other
Pyrolysis requires a lower temperature than other technologies and happens in a vacuum chamber
2.2-3.4 — Current cost estimate ($ per kgH2)
 Electrolysis produces H2 by applying a direct current to an electrolyte solution, which allows high purity of hydrogen
Kearney · 2020 · other
Electrolysis produces H2 by applying a direct current to an electrolyte solution, which allows high purity of hydrogen
 Water alkaline electrolysis is one of the oldest electrolysis technology, used in large-scale projects
Kearney · 2020 · case_study
Water alkaline electrolysis is one of the oldest electrolysis technology, used in large-scale projects
 PEM is rapidly developing thanks to its compacity, its improved current density and flexibility but requires precious materials
Kearney · 2020 · context
PEM is rapidly developing thanks to its compacity, its improved current density and flexibility but requires precious materials
60-77% — Efficiency
 SOEC, the electrolysis of steam, is still in the R&D stage but is more efficient than other electrolysis technologies
Kearney · 2020 · context
SOEC, the electrolysis of steam, is still in the R&D stage but is more efficient than other electrolysis technologies
74-81% — Efficiency
 These electrolysis technologies exist with different characteristics which make them suitable for different applications
Kearney · 2020 · comparison_table
These electrolysis technologies exist with different characteristics which make them suitable for different applications
 Dark fermentation is the conversion of organic matter to hydrogen through biochemical reactions
Kearney · 2020 · other
Dark fermentation is the conversion of organic matter to hydrogen through biochemical reactions
 Microbial electrolysis combines electrical energy with microorganisms activation to produce H2 with low energy inputs
Kearney · 2020 · other
Microbial electrolysis combines electrical energy with microorganisms activation to produce H2 with low energy inputs
70% — Efficiency
 Photolytic technologies directly converts sun energy into hydrogen
Kearney · 2020 · other
Photolytic technologies directly converts sun energy into hydrogen
23% — Efficiency
 Storing and transporting hydrogen adds complexity to the value chain
Kearney · 2020 · value_chain
Storing and transporting hydrogen adds complexity to the value chain
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