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1,173 slides across 13 decks match.
Treemap Arc Catalog
AI eats the world
BenedictEvans · cover
AI eats the world
 “AI is whatever machines can’t do yet”
BenedictEvans · quote_slide
“AI is whatever machines can’t do yet”
 Historically, once 'AI' works it's just software
BenedictEvans · context
Historically, once 'AI' works it's just software
 Yes, but...
BenedictEvans · quote_slide
Yes, but...
 “The final race to AGI is afoot”
BenedictEvans · quote_slide
“The final race to AGI is afoot”
 So, the next platform shift?
BenedictEvans · context
So, the next platform shift?
 So, the next platform shift? Or more?
BenedictEvans · context
So, the next platform shift? Or more?
 Two years of the model wars
BenedictEvans · key_messages
Two years of the model wars
 FOMO drives a capex surge
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
FOMO drives a capex surge
$300bn — Capex ($bn)
 Microsoft’s margin shift
BenedictEvans · financial_analysis
Microsoft’s margin shift
30% — capex/sales
 The Nvidia moat
BenedictEvans · competitive_analysis
The Nvidia moat
$40bn — Quarterly revenue
 Models themselves seem to be commodities
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
Models themselves seem to be commodities
 DeepSeek just proves the point
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
DeepSeek just proves the point
 Ongoing price collapse
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
Ongoing price collapse
 “The Jevons Paradox!”
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
“The Jevons Paradox!”
 “Better, faster, cheaper: pick two”
BenedictEvans · analyze_data
“Better, faster, cheaper: pick two”
 “Better, faster, cheaper: pick two”
BenedictEvans · analyze_data
“Better, faster, cheaper: pick two”
 “Feeds & speeds” and a lot of acronyms
BenedictEvans · context
“Feeds & speeds” and a lot of acronyms
 The models may be commodities, but ChatGPT is the only ‘AI’ brand with consumer awareness
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
The models may be commodities, but ChatGPT is the only ‘AI’ brand with consumer awareness
1 — App Store Ranking
 ‘Big Tech’ strategies: “how do we use this?”
BenedictEvans · framework_other
‘Big Tech’ strategies: “how do we use this?”
 But what does this mean for the rest of us?
BenedictEvans · key_messages
But what does this mean for the rest of us?
 From deterministic to probabilistic software
BenedictEvans · process_diagram
From deterministic to probabilistic software
 That sounds great, but...
BenedictEvans · transition
That sounds great, but...
 Do we use LLMs to control all of our traditional software? Or are LLMs just another API to build software?
BenedictEvans · problem_statement
Do we use LLMs to control all of our traditional software? Or are LLMs just another API to build software?
 Do chatbots have product-market fit? Who for?
BenedictEvans · problem_statement
Do chatbots have product-market fit? Who for?
 For enterprises, use cases are easier to see but implementation is hard
BenedictEvans · pain_points
For enterprises, use cases are easier to see but implementation is hard
44% — Percentage of respondents
 The future always takes time
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
The future always takes time
30% — Enterprise workloads in public cloud
 It's always different
BenedictEvans · context
It's always different
 Do you have that use case?
BenedictEvans · case_study
Do you have that use case?
 “I have that use case!”
BenedictEvans · context
“I have that use case!”
 AI coding as the new AWS?
BenedictEvans · context
AI coding as the new AWS?
 Startups create use cases & unbundle incumbents
BenedictEvans · client_example
Startups create use cases & unbundle incumbents
 (Almost) every new startup is AI
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
(Almost) every new startup is AI
 Everyone has a pilot
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
Everyone has a pilot
 The future can take time
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
The future can take time
40% — CIO adoption timeline
 Platform shifts mean more tools
BenedictEvans · process_diagram
Platform shifts mean more tools
 Is this a CIO question? CFO? CEO? Is this an Accenture question? Or a Bain/BCG/McKinsey question? Is this top line or bottom line change? Or a disruptive, existential threat?
BenedictEvans · problem_statement
Is this a CIO question? CFO? CEO? Is this an Accenture question? Or a Bain/BCG/McKinsey question? Is this top line or bottom line change? Or a disruptive, existential threat?
 Can we change the question?
BenedictEvans · other
Can we change the question?
 And what kinds of questions are these?
BenedictEvans · transition
And what kinds of questions are these?
 Welcome to the next platform shift?
BenedictEvans · section_divider
Welcome to the next platform shift?
 Posit: all AI questions have one of two answers
BenedictEvans · framework_other
Posit: all AI questions have one of two answers
 But no-one ever knows
BenedictEvans · case_study
But no-one ever knows
 Meanwhile, all the old stuff is still there
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
Meanwhile, all the old stuff is still there
23% — E-commerce penetration
 After a decade of promises and tens of billions of dollars, AVs might be starting to work
BenedictEvans · industry_trends
After a decade of promises and tens of billions of dollars, AVs might be starting to work
700,000 — Monthly robotaxi trips
 From dreams to deployment
BenedictEvans · timeline
From dreams to deployment
 What matters in tech? What’s going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?
BenedictEvans · other
What matters in tech? What’s going on, what might it mean, and what will happen next?
 We connected (almost) everyone
BenedictEvans · market_landscape
We connected (almost) everyone
5.5bn — Global population
 New technologies come in S Curves
BenedictEvans · framework_other
New technologies come in S Curves
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