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Less than 5 USD Bn of the total debt has been used to cover primary budget deficit, while the rest is the result of interest accumulation
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Less than 5 USD Bn of the total debt has been used to cover primary budget deficit, while the rest is the result of interest accumulation
75 — Total gross public debt
 62% of Lebanon’s debt is in local currency with 84% held locally, reducing risk of government default but putting pressure on the economy
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
62% of Lebanon’s debt is in local currency with 84% held locally, reducing risk of government default but putting pressure on the economy
$75bn — Total gross public debt
 Local currency debt is concentrated in short-term obligations whereas foreign currency debt is long-term
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Local currency debt is concentrated in short-term obligations whereas foreign currency debt is long-term
3.84 years — Average time to maturity
 If Lebanon retains same trajectory, debt to GDP ratio could reach 200% and other expenses would exceed government revenues by 2021
McKinsey · 2018 · scenario_analysis
If Lebanon retains same trajectory, debt to GDP ratio could reach 200% and other expenses would exceed government revenues by 2021
200% — Debt to GDP ratio
 Since 1992, ~36% of the government budget went towards servicing debt, with only ~7% representing capital expenditures
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Since 1992, ~36% of the government budget went towards servicing debt, with only ~7% representing capital expenditures
36% — Government expenditure allocation
 Current size of interest repayments & personnel cost, leave a tight room for productive investments & social benefits compared to benchmarks
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Current size of interest repayments & personnel cost, leave a tight room for productive investments & social benefits compared to benchmarks
45% — General government revenues
 Public sector size in terms of government expenditures is in line with global average at ~30%; expenditure for 2018 of 40% will be higher
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Public sector size in terms of government expenditures is in line with global average at ~30%; expenditure for 2018 of 40% will be higher
30% — Government expenditures as % of GDP
 However, public sector size in terms of employment is highest amongst regional and global benchmarks
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
However, public sector size in terms of employment is highest amongst regional and global benchmarks
46% — Wages and salaries as % of General government revenues
 ~5 USD Bn of taxes can be gathered yearly through better VAT compliance and collection
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
~5 USD Bn of taxes can be gathered yearly through better VAT compliance and collection
$5bn — Tax revenue loss
 As such, Lebanon spends ~50% more on public servant salaries and generates ~10% less government revenue compared to peer countries
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
As such, Lebanon spends ~50% more on public servant salaries and generates ~10% less government revenue compared to peer countries
50% — Fiscal efficiency
 World Bank’s Doing Business Ranking helps with ranking economies globally & identify improvement opportunities along the business life cycle
McKinsey · 2018 · framework_other
World Bank’s Doing Business Ranking helps with ranking economies globally & identify improvement opportunities along the business life cycle
 Compared to 2012, Lebanon’s 2018 “doing business” index moved down 29 ranks, mainly due to worsening on 8 out of the 10 criteria
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Compared to 2012, Lebanon’s 2018 “doing business” index moved down 29 ranks, mainly due to worsening on 8 out of the 10 criteria
-29 — Ease of Doing Business Rank
 Lebanon has made very little effort in the last 6 years to introduce reforms and improve the business environment
McKinsey · 2018 · benchmark_peers
Lebanon has made very little effort in the last 6 years to introduce reforms and improve the business environment
133 — Ease of doing business ranking
 The non-conducive business environment could be attributed to 4 main root causes
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
The non-conducive business environment could be attributed to 4 main root causes
42% — cost of starting a business
 Several laws that have been identified as crucial for an overall conducive business environment but are still pending approval
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
Several laws that have been identified as crucial for an overall conducive business environment but are still pending approval
 While other countries managed to improve their corruption rank, Lebanon lost ~20 places since 2012
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
While other countries managed to improve their corruption rank, Lebanon lost ~20 places since 2012
146 — Corruption Perception Index rank
 In addition to corruption, government instability and poor infrastructure put additional strain on doing business in Lebanon
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
In addition to corruption, government instability and poor infrastructure put additional strain on doing business in Lebanon
105th — Global competitiveness index
 The Lebanese government should focus on 5 main initiatives around legislative reforms and government effectiveness
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
The Lebanese government should focus on 5 main initiatives around legislative reforms and government effectiveness
 Georgia has improved by 100 spots on ease of doing business through 39 regulatory reforms
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
Georgia has improved by 100 spots on ease of doing business through 39 regulatory reforms
100 — Ease of doing business rank
 Financial engineering operations were put in place in 2016 to reverse the trend of declining foreign assets
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Financial engineering operations were put in place in 2016 to reverse the trend of declining foreign assets
 Four main pillars are critical to enable economic development activation
McKinsey · 2018 · context
Four main pillars are critical to enable economic development activation
 Case studies show that best-in-class investment promotion agencies serve both domestic & foreign investors in a full-scoped model
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
Case studies show that best-in-class investment promotion agencies serve both domestic & foreign investors in a full-scoped model
 Investment promotion agencies typically offer a broad range of services in the value chain
McKinsey · 2018 · value_chain
Investment promotion agencies typically offer a broad range of services in the value chain
 IDAL has a clear investment promotion strategy but is not providing competitive incentives and effective aftercare services
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
IDAL has a clear investment promotion strategy but is not providing competitive incentives and effective aftercare services
 Three key points need to be addressed to unlock the full potential of the investment promotion agency in Lebanon
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
Three key points need to be addressed to unlock the full potential of the investment promotion agency in Lebanon
 CASE EXAMPLE: Turkey’s government agency ISPAT offers extensive services to local and foreign investors through a one-stop-shop approach
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
CASE EXAMPLE: Turkey’s government agency ISPAT offers extensive services to local and foreign investors through a one-stop-shop approach
#15 — Global Investment Promotion Ranking
 New Zealand Trade & Enterprise has a highly intensive program for the potential high growth firms
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
New Zealand Trade & Enterprise has a highly intensive program for the potential high growth firms
42% — Annual revenue growth
 CASE EXAMPLE: Crotia’s Agency for Investments & Competitiveness promotes Croatia, proactively attracts investors and helps in implementing large projects
McKinsey · 2018 · case_study
CASE EXAMPLE: Crotia’s Agency for Investments & Competitiveness promotes Croatia, proactively attracts investors and helps in implementing large projects
EUR 2.87 billion — FDI flows
 Best practice export promotion agencies provide support across 6 dimensions
McKinsey · 2018 · framework_other
Best practice export promotion agencies provide support across 6 dimensions
 Three main entities are responsible for export promotion and partially provide the services recommended by best practices
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
Three main entities are responsible for export promotion and partially provide the services recommended by best practices
 Share of budget allocated for export promotion in Lebanon is low compared to peers
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Share of budget allocated for export promotion in Lebanon is low compared to peers
0.003% — Share of government budget
 Main challenges in export promotion can be attributed to lengthy process for approval of programs and difficulty in accessing markets
McKinsey · 2018 · pain_points
Main challenges in export promotion can be attributed to lengthy process for approval of programs and difficulty in accessing markets
 SME programs typically provide support across 3 dimensions: capital, talent and markets
McKinsey · 2018 · framework_other
SME programs typically provide support across 3 dimensions: capital, talent and markets
 Several countries have gone for a “one-stop-shop SME model” providing support on a variety of dimensions
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Several countries have gone for a “one-stop-shop SME model” providing support on a variety of dimensions
 However, in Lebanon, 3 entities are currently involved in SME support with little support is being provided across the 3 dimensions
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
However, in Lebanon, 3 entities are currently involved in SME support with little support is being provided across the 3 dimensions
 GAFTA has been relatively advantageous to Lebanon, allowing exports to consistently grow, whereas imports began to decline in 2011
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
GAFTA has been relatively advantageous to Lebanon, allowing exports to consistently grow, whereas imports began to decline in 2011
 EU Association Agreement led to a short-lived boost to exports, whereas imports continue to grow
McKinsey · 2018 · data_table
EU Association Agreement led to a short-lived boost to exports, whereas imports continue to grow
+126% — Trade flows (USD)
 The EFTA trade agreement led to a balanced increase in both exports and imports, but gains in both have been largely lost
McKinsey · 2018 · analyze_data
The EFTA trade agreement led to a balanced increase in both exports and imports, but gains in both have been largely lost
 Moving forward, there are 3 key trade-related priorities for the government
McKinsey · 2018 · initiative_list
Moving forward, there are 3 key trade-related priorities for the government
 RECAP: Lebanon’s economic challenges necessitate a change in its economic model
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
RECAP: Lebanon’s economic challenges necessitate a change in its economic model
149% — Debt to GDP
 Many countries have followed to several paths to lead successful economic transformations, guided by a clear Vision and strategy
McKinsey · 2018 · precedent
Many countries have followed to several paths to lead successful economic transformations, guided by a clear Vision and strategy
 Countries with Lebanon’s characteristics have successfully applied a clear recipe to develop their economy
McKinsey · 2018 · precedent
Countries with Lebanon’s characteristics have successfully applied a clear recipe to develop their economy
 To overcome the challenges, Lebanon should develop a National Vision guided by consistent principles
McKinsey · 2018 · recommendation
To overcome the challenges, Lebanon should develop a National Vision guided by consistent principles
 The National Economic Vision 2025 would build on Lebanon’s unique economic and social characteristics
McKinsey · 2018 · framework_other
The National Economic Vision 2025 would build on Lebanon’s unique economic and social characteristics
 Selecting Lebanon's productive sectors would follow three main criteria
McKinsey · 2018 · framework_other
Selecting Lebanon's productive sectors would follow three main criteria
 Three key metrics were prioritized to assess the sector's contribution towards reaching the macro aspirations
McKinsey · 2018 · framework_other
Three key metrics were prioritized to assess the sector's contribution towards reaching the macro aspirations
 Five sectors would present the highest economic potential for Lebanon
McKinsey · 2018 · matrix_nxn
Five sectors would present the highest economic potential for Lebanon
2.2 — Potential additional GDP
 Developing the priority sectors should follow the targets and initiatives defined in the Economic Vision
McKinsey · 2018 · process_diagram
Developing the priority sectors should follow the targets and initiatives defined in the Economic Vision
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