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Productive sectors contribute to only ~16% of the country’s GDP...
McKinsey · 2018 · data_table
Productive sectors contribute to only ~16% of the country’s GDP...
16% — GDP contribution
 ... while employing ~26% of the labor force
McKinsey · 2018 · data_table
... while employing ~26% of the labor force
1,977 — Total employment
 The drop in economic activity has led to an increase in unemployment, further compounded by the Syrian migrant crisis
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
The drop in economic activity has led to an increase in unemployment, further compounded by the Syrian migrant crisis
15-25% — unemployment rate
 The outsourcing sector is not well established with a small contribution to employment
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
The outsourcing sector is not well established with a small contribution to employment
2.46 — Location readiness index
 Today, Lebanon's GDP growth remains subdued as the Lebanese economy is vulnerable to the Syrian crisis and the increasing debt burden
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Today, Lebanon's GDP growth remains subdued as the Lebanese economy is vulnerable to the Syrian crisis and the increasing debt burden
 The economy is dominated by private consumption and private sector investment
McKinsey · 2018 · context
The economy is dominated by private consumption and private sector investment
89% — GDP composition
 In fact, Lebanon has the highest private consumption contribution to GDP, higher than world average and selected peer countries
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
In fact, Lebanon has the highest private consumption contribution to GDP, higher than world average and selected peer countries
89% — Private consumption contribution to GDP
 Moreover, in the last 10 years, GDP growth has been largely driven by private consumption
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Moreover, in the last 10 years, GDP growth has been largely driven by private consumption
4.36% — GDP growth
 Private consumption and domestic demand has mainly been driven by high remittances and strong financial credit provided by banks
McKinsey · 2018 · context
Private consumption and domestic demand has mainly been driven by high remittances and strong financial credit provided by banks
+5% — Private sector loans / Personal remittances
 From the supply side, the country's GDP is mainly driven by labor and capital, with a decreasing productivity
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
From the supply side, the country's GDP is mainly driven by labor and capital, with a decreasing productivity
4.36% — Real GDP CAGR
 Real estate and business services contribute the most to GDP; financial services have grown fastest in the last 5 years
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Real estate and business services contribute the most to GDP; financial services have grown fastest in the last 5 years
11.1 — GDP contribution
 Lebanon maintains a large and persistent current account deficit mostly driven by trade deficit; it reached ~20% of GDP in 2016
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Lebanon maintains a large and persistent current account deficit mostly driven by trade deficit; it reached ~20% of GDP in 2016
-21% — Current account balance as % of GDP
 Exports are mostly driven by services while imports are more balanced towards goods; the trade balance has remained persistently negative
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Exports are mostly driven by services while imports are more balanced towards goods; the trade balance has remained persistently negative
+181% — Total trade deficit
 Current transfers are predominantly driven by worker's remittances; the net balance has been historically positive and follows an increasing trend
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Current transfers are predominantly driven by worker's remittances; the net balance has been historically positive and follows an increasing trend
+130% — Net balance growth
 Lebanon’s export profile is skewed towards products of low complexity — moving up the value chain should be a key priority
McKinsey · 2018 · benchmark_peers
Lebanon’s export profile is skewed towards products of low complexity — moving up the value chain should be a key priority
 Middle East is the largest destination of exports but shows a decreasing trend; share of Asian trade has nearly tripled since 2014
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Middle East is the largest destination of exports but shows a decreasing trend; share of Asian trade has nearly tripled since 2014
4.0 bn USD — Export value
 Nearly 90% of exports of goods are manufactures intensive in capital and R&D; top sub-sectors are basic metals and automotive
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Nearly 90% of exports of goods are manufactures intensive in capital and R&D; top sub-sectors are basic metals and automotive
4.0 bn USD — Export value
 EU and North America are the largest source regions of Lebanese imports accounting for ~60% of the total; USA is currently the top partner country
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
EU and North America are the largest source regions of Lebanese imports accounting for ~60% of the total; USA is currently the top partner country
60% — Import share
 Imports of goods are largely driven by capital and R&D intensive manufacturing; petroleum and chemical products show the greatest shares
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Imports of goods are largely driven by capital and R&D intensive manufacturing; petroleum and chemical products show the greatest shares
34% — Import share
 Trade in services is driven mainly by business services & others, and travel; exports experienced stagnation since 2010 while imports increased
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Trade in services is driven mainly by business services & others, and travel; exports experienced stagnation since 2010 while imports increased
-0.8% — CAGR
 Net worker’s remittances are positive, similar to most peers. Additionally, the trend has been increasing; it expanded 5% p.a. since 2010
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Net worker’s remittances are positive, similar to most peers. Additionally, the trend has been increasing; it expanded 5% p.a. since 2010
5% — Net worker's remittances
 Lebanon reports a positive balance in the financial account mostly driven by “other financial flows”
McKinsey · 2018 · financial_analysis
Lebanon reports a positive balance in the financial account mostly driven by “other financial flows”
12.4 — Financial account balance
 Lebanon’s FDI inflows followed a decreasing trend since 2009; the relative size of the flows remains above most regional peers but lags global leaders
McKinsey · 2018 · benchmark_peers
Lebanon’s FDI inflows followed a decreasing trend since 2009; the relative size of the flows remains above most regional peers but lags global leaders
2.6 — FDI inflows
 Lebanon has made several advancements towards unlocking its oil & gas resources ...
McKinsey · 2018 · context
Lebanon has made several advancements towards unlocking its oil & gas resources ...
1.7 billion barrels — recoverable oil
 ... but remains at the early stages of a 10+ year journey
McKinsey · 2018 · timeline
... but remains at the early stages of a 10+ year journey
10k — job creation
 Despite recent achievements, there are many uncertainties surrounding the true value of Lebanon's oil & gas reserves
McKinsey · 2018 · problem_statement
Despite recent achievements, there are many uncertainties surrounding the true value of Lebanon's oil & gas reserves
 Thus, the role of oil & gas in Lebanon’s future remains unknown, and can fall into one of three broad scenarios
McKinsey · 2018 · scenario_analysis
Thus, the role of oil & gas in Lebanon’s future remains unknown, and can fall into one of three broad scenarios
 The agriculture sector represents ~3% of GDP and has been resiliently stagnant over the last 10 years
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
The agriculture sector represents ~3% of GDP and has been resiliently stagnant over the last 10 years
3% — GDP contribution
 Despite some year-on-year volatility, the distribution between agriculture and livestock has remained nearly constant
McKinsey · 2018 · data_table
Despite some year-on-year volatility, the distribution between agriculture and livestock has remained nearly constant
1.2% — Real GDP value of agriculture
 Growth in agribusiness has been fueled by food processing, whereas agriculture (crops & livestock) has been stagnating
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Growth in agribusiness has been fueled by food processing, whereas agriculture (crops & livestock) has been stagnating
2,531 — Real GDP value
 The agriculture sector is one of Lebanon’s largest employers, with 212,000 permanent employees (excl. seasonal employees)
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
The agriculture sector is one of Lebanon’s largest employers, with 212,000 permanent employees (excl. seasonal employees)
212,000 — Total employment
 Agribusiness exports were growing rapidly until 2014, but have now stagnated
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Agribusiness exports were growing rapidly until 2014, but have now stagnated
-12% — Agribusiness exports
 The decline in exports between 2014 and 2016 was driven by disruptions to land routes through Syria, but limited due to MLEB efforts
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
The decline in exports between 2014 and 2016 was driven by disruptions to land routes through Syria, but limited due to MLEB efforts
-48.3% — Food exports
 Decline in imports (and net imports) between 2014 and 2016 imply that exports were replaced with local consumption
McKinsey · 2018 · data_table
Decline in imports (and net imports) between 2014 and 2016 imply that exports were replaced with local consumption
 Lebanon's food exports are very concentrated in the region, with 63% going to near east & gulf states
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Lebanon's food exports are very concentrated in the region, with 63% going to near east & gulf states
63% — Share of food exports
 Lebanon's top 6 agricultural export destinations are Arab countries
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Lebanon's top 6 agricultural export destinations are Arab countries
101 — USD Million
 Lebanon's food imports are less geographically concentrated than its exports
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Lebanon's food imports are less geographically concentrated than its exports
276 — USD Million
 Lebanon has a diverse agricultural sector, with 60+ crops and ~10 livestock products
McKinsey · 2018 · segmentation
Lebanon has a diverse agricultural sector, with 60+ crops and ~10 livestock products
1.56 billion USD — Value of production
 Over the last 45 years, olives has replaced wheat as the top crop by harvest area, and has demonstrated relative resiliency
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Over the last 45 years, olives has replaced wheat as the top crop by harvest area, and has demonstrated relative resiliency
254 — Harvested area (hectares)
 Exports are dominated by fruits, vegetable and other crops, with livestock value chains accounting for only ~5% of exports
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Exports are dominated by fruits, vegetable and other crops, with livestock value chains accounting for only ~5% of exports
5.5% — Export value
 Water usage in agriculture needs to be actively managed to ensure sustainability, as Lebanon’s water stress levels are high and increasing
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
Water usage in agriculture needs to be actively managed to ensure sustainability, as Lebanon’s water stress levels are high and increasing
2030 — MCM (Million Cubic Meters)
 Lebanon's agricultural holdings are highly fragmented...
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
Lebanon's agricultural holdings are highly fragmented...
70% — Number of holdings
 ...which is likely limiting productivity & export potential
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
...which is likely limiting productivity & export potential
1.4 — Average holding size (hectare/holding)
 Cooperatives can play an important role in enabling and expanding market access for small farmers, but do not do so in Lebanon
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
Cooperatives can play an important role in enabling and expanding market access for small farmers, but do not do so in Lebanon
5% — cooperative membership
 There is a large number of cooperatives in Lebanon, but many are inactive, and only 5% of farmers belong to one
McKinsey · 2018 · diagnosis
There is a large number of cooperatives in Lebanon, but many are inactive, and only 5% of farmers belong to one
5% — Cooperative membership
 Lending to the agriculture sector was consistently growing until 2015, but Kafalat’s portfolio has been declining recently
McKinsey · 2018 · market_landscape
Lending to the agriculture sector was consistently growing until 2015, but Kafalat’s portfolio has been declining recently
-10% — Loans to agriculture sector
 Overall, credit to Lebanon’s agriculture sector is significantly lower than credit levels observed in more developed countries
McKinsey · 2018 · peer_benchmark
Overall, credit to Lebanon’s agriculture sector is significantly lower than credit levels observed in more developed countries
 The manufacturing sector represents ~10% of GDP but has been recently been declining
McKinsey · 2018 · industry_trends
The manufacturing sector represents ~10% of GDP but has been recently been declining
10% — GDP contribution
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