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As the two major superpowers race to power their AI aspirations, China pulls ahead to a dominant lead:
AirStreetCapital · comparison_table
As the two major superpowers race to power their AI aspirations, China pulls ahead to a dominant lead:
429.0 GW — Capacity Added (2024)
 Power Plays: China and the United States
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Power Plays: China and the United States
1,450 GW — Electricity generation (TWh)
 From top to bottom, different nations continue to pursue vastly different “Sovereign AI” playbooks:
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
From top to bottom, different nations continue to pursue vastly different “Sovereign AI” playbooks:
 The Sovereign AI spending spree
AirStreetCapital · geographic_map
The Sovereign AI spending spree
$100B — Sovereign AI Investment
 Sovereign AI: the hype and the hard truths
AirStreetCapital · key_messages
Sovereign AI: the hype and the hard truths
 Sovereign AI: the hype and the hard truths
AirStreetCapital · problem_statement
Sovereign AI: the hype and the hard truths
 The world’s top “Sovereign AI” evangelist
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
The world’s top “Sovereign AI” evangelist
$20B — Sovereign AI revenue
 Digging into NVIDIA's revenue concentration
AirStreetCapital · market_landscape
Digging into NVIDIA's revenue concentration
75% — Revenue concentration
 The rise of GPU neoclouds in public and private markets
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
The rise of GPU neoclouds in public and private markets
$59.9B — Valuation
 NVIDIA's circular GPU revenue loops
AirStreetCapital · data_table
NVIDIA's circular GPU revenue loops
$100B — Investment/Contract Value
 The Oracle/OpenAI/NVIDIA triangle has drawn the most attention, yet circular deals have become common.
AirStreetCapital · data_table
The Oracle/OpenAI/NVIDIA triangle has drawn the most attention, yet circular deals have become common.
$14B+ — Investment Value
 Symbiosis or deathtrap: circular AI deals and potential warning signs
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Symbiosis or deathtrap: circular AI deals and potential warning signs
 Borrowed Intelligence: the growing use of debt instruments
AirStreetCapital · data_table
Borrowed Intelligence: the growing use of debt instruments
$26B — Debt Amount
 Out with corporate borrowing, in with SPVs, JVs and accounting gymnastics
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Out with corporate borrowing, in with SPVs, JVs and accounting gymnastics
 Petrodollars are bankrolling the American AI dream
AirStreetCapital · market_landscape
Petrodollars are bankrolling the American AI dream
25% — Share of Global VC Rounds with MENA Investors
 “Challengers” are no closer to catching NVIDIA
AirStreetCapital · competitive_analysis
“Challengers” are no closer to catching NVIDIA
$500M — revenue
 NVIDIA’s large lead persists within the AI research community
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
NVIDIA’s large lead persists within the AI research community
90% — Compute mentions in AI research papers
 Inside NVIDIA mentions: Hopper surges, edge rises, legacy fades
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Inside NVIDIA mentions: Hopper surges, edge rises, legacy fades
126% — NVIDIA accelerator citations
 What chips power which research? Topic skews by accelerator (H1 2025)
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
What chips power which research? Topic skews by accelerator (H1 2025)
43 — Delta vs corpus (pp)
 Startup silicon is still (mostly) on the sidelines
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Startup silicon is still (mostly) on the sidelines
593 — Paper mentions
 Tracking the returns on investments in NVIDIA's Western challengers
AirStreetCapital · financial_analysis
Tracking the returns on investments in NVIDIA's Western challengers
$89.2B — Net Asset Value
 Tracking the returns on investments in NVIDIA's Chinese challengers
AirStreetCapital · financial_analysis
Tracking the returns on investments in NVIDIA's Chinese challengers
$160.3B — Net Asset Value
 ... yet the gains of Chinese chip startups have largely come in the past year
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
... yet the gains of Chinese chip startups have largely come in the past year
4,348% — revenue growth
 The Mass Migration (from OpenAI and others)
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
The Mass Migration (from OpenAI and others)
 Race across the world: Wayve's 90-city world tour in 90 days
AirStreetCapital · case_study
Race across the world: Wayve's 90-city world tour in 90 days
90 — Data Corpus Coverage
 Gradually then suddenly: 71M rider-only miles w/out a human driver through March '25
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Gradually then suddenly: 71M rider-only miles w/out a human driver through March '25
709,180 — Monthly paid trips
 Humanoids in 2025: hype high, deployments thin
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Humanoids in 2025: hype high, deployments thin
$1.96B — Capital raised
 The emerging surfaces of AI security threats
AirStreetCapital · problem_statement
The emerging surfaces of AI security threats
 Venture investments in AI companies continues to surge with a focus on GenAI and the US
AirStreetCapital · market_landscape
Venture investments in AI companies continues to surge with a focus on GenAI and the US
$133B — Venture Capital Investment
 Public AI titans outweigh private gains, but from a far larger base
AirStreetCapital · financial_analysis
Public AI titans outweigh private gains, but from a far larger base
$11T — Market Valuation
 Mega $250M+ rounds eat the lionshare of private capital invested into GenAI
AirStreetCapital · market_landscape
Mega $250M+ rounds eat the lionshare of private capital invested into GenAI
90% — Share of private capital
 The IPO is showing signs of thawing while M&A is picking up with $B+ deals
AirStreetCapital · market_landscape
The IPO is showing signs of thawing while M&A is picking up with $B+ deals
2x — Deal Volume
 The scaling law of AI valuations
AirStreetCapital · financial_analysis
The scaling law of AI valuations
5.1 Months — Valuation
 Artificially high valuations? Tracking annualized revenue multiples
AirStreetCapital · financial_analysis
Artificially high valuations? Tracking annualized revenue multiples
10x — Annualized Revenue Multiple
 Llama-4: alleged data contamination, misleading benchmarking by overfitting and underwhelming vibes overall
AirStreetCapital · case_study
Llama-4: alleged data contamination, misleading benchmarking by overfitting and underwhelming vibes overall
 Trump 47: back with a vengeance
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
Trump 47: back with a vengeance
 The AI Action Plan: America's Grand AI Strategy
AirStreetCapital · context
The AI Action Plan: America's Grand AI Strategy
 From controls to exports: America's “AI Stack” strategy
AirStreetCapital · context
From controls to exports: America's “AI Stack” strategy
 US chip-export policy zigzags test leverage over China
AirStreetCapital · context
US chip-export policy zigzags test leverage over China
 No Pain, No GAIN
AirStreetCapital · case_study
No Pain, No GAIN
 Rendering new verdicts: NVIDIA's recent attempts to exert influence in Washington
AirStreetCapital · market_landscape
Rendering new verdicts: NVIDIA's recent attempts to exert influence in Washington
$1.5M — Lobbying expenditures
 But Washington may not be the only place NVIDIA needs to lobby...
AirStreetCapital · context
But Washington may not be the only place NVIDIA needs to lobby...
10% — Share of quarterly revenue
 US and Intel: a new, unexpected, stake-based friendship...the start of something new?
AirStreetCapital · context
US and Intel: a new, unexpected, stake-based friendship...the start of something new?
 But there's more unusual US Government partnerships with the private sector...
AirStreetCapital · other
But there's more unusual US Government partnerships with the private sector...
 TikTok USA: the “will they/won’t they” storyline comes to an end
AirStreetCapital · context
TikTok USA: the “will they/won’t they” storyline comes to an end
$14B — valuation
 If you build it, the AI will come: the USG streamlining strategies for building AI infra.
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
If you build it, the AI will come: the USG streamlining strategies for building AI infra.
 AI data center’s latest bottleneck: NIMBYism
AirStreetCapital · industry_trends
AI data center’s latest bottleneck: NIMBYism
$64B — Planned data center projects blocked or delayed
 Foundational AI Research is a government priority, but where's the money?
AirStreetCapital · problem_statement
Foundational AI Research is a government priority, but where's the money?
$3.3B — Federal AI R&D Funding
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